The Genesis Invitational 2026
Signature Event | Cut Event | Riviera Country Club | 100,000 Simulations Per Player
DFS Dashboard provides actual probability information so users can make pragmatic decisions for DFS lineups and sports betting. We ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations per player using our bimodal mixture model and applied FanDuel salary pricing to generate value multiplier probabilities at 6X through 10X. Here’s what the FanDuel landscape looks like for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.
FanDuel Pricing: A Different Value Map
FanDuel’s salary structure creates a meaningfully different value landscape than DraftKings. FD salaries run higher across the board — Scottie Scheffler is priced at $15,800 (vs. $14,300 on DK), and the field average sits roughly $500–$1,000 above DK equivalents. This compresses the multiplier thresholds: on FanDuel, the key benchmarks are 6X through 10X rather than the 8X–12X range that matters on DraftKings.
The practical effect is that value plays shift. Players who offer elite DK value don’t always translate to FD, because the salary gaps are different. Our simulation uses the identical 100,000-outcome distribution for each player — the scores don’t change, only the salary denominator does. This isolates exactly where FanDuel’s pricing creates market inefficiencies.
Scheffler on FanDuel: $15,800 and Even Steeper Math
At $15,800 on FanDuel, Scheffler’s value math is even more punishing than on DraftKings. His 8X target requires 126.4 fantasy points — a top-3 finish — and our simulations give him just a 15.1% probability of clearing it. His 10X target of 158 points clears in only 1.0% of simulations. Even the 6X threshold of 94.8 points, which represents a roughly top-15 finish, only hits 56.8% of the time.
With 34.71% projected FanDuel ownership — the highest on the slate — Scheffler is simultaneously the most talented and most overowned player in the field. The leverage case against him is even stronger on FD than DK: you’re paying $15,800 for a player whose 8X probability is just 15.1%, while the field average in the $8,000–$8,999 range clears 8X at 58.2%.
FanDuel’s Best Value Plays
The FanDuel value leaderboard looks distinctly different from DraftKings. Several players who are fairly priced on DK become significant mispricings on FanDuel due to salary differential.
| Player | FD Salary | Mean | Pts/$k | 8X% | 10X% | POWN |
| Max McGreevy | $6,600 | 61.9 | 9.38 | 62.4% | 50.4% | 3.15% |
| Tony Finau | $6,900 | 61.6 | 8.93 | 59.9% | 46.5% | 3.82% |
| Wyndham Clark | $7,600 | 65.0 | 8.55 | 59.8% | 42.8% | 3.73% |
| Nick Taylor | $8,200 | 69.6 | 8.49 | 61.0% | 41.6% | 6.76% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $7,700 | 65.3 | 8.48 | 59.4% | 41.9% | 7.18% |
| Max Homa | $8,000 | 67.6 | 8.45 | 60.3% | 41.0% | 4.46% |
| Tom Kim | $6,500 | 54.7 | 8.42 | 54.3% | 40.8% | 3.09% |
Max McGreevy ($6,600) is the standout FanDuel value play of the week. His 9.38 Pts/$k leads all 72 players, and his 62.4% probability of hitting 8X value is the highest in the field regardless of salary. At $6,600, he needs just 52.8 points for 8X — a threshold that corresponds to a made-cut-and-contribute performance. His 3.15% ownership means you’re getting elite value efficiency at near-minimum exposure.
Tony Finau ($6,900) emerges as a FanDuel-specific value play that doesn’t rank nearly as high on DraftKings. His $6,900 FD price (vs. $6,800 DK) creates a 8.93 Pts/$k ratio with 59.9% at 8X. At just 3.82% projected ownership, Finau offers massive leverage in a cut event where his 58.33% Top 40% provides a reasonable floor.
Wyndham Clark ($7,600) is dramatically underpriced on FanDuel relative to his simulation output. His $7,600 FD salary (vs. $7,000 on DK) still produces an 8.55 Pts/$k with 59.8% at 8X. At 3.73% ownership, he’s one of the lowest-owned players with a 60%+ 8X probability — a textbook leverage play.
Premium Plays: FanDuel Efficiency Rankings
FanDuel’s higher salary structure compresses value at the top of the board. Here’s how the premium tier stacks up on FD-specific metrics:
| Player | FD Salary | Mean | Pts/$k | 8X% | POWN |
| Si Woo Kim | $10,500 | 77.8 | 7.41 | 51.0% | 18.91% |
| Collin Morikawa | $10,800 | 78.3 | 7.25 | 47.6% | 12.09% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $11,400 | 81.7 | 7.17 | 45.8% | 19.24% |
| Chris Gotterup | $10,700 | 76.4 | 7.14 | 46.2% | 18.31% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $11,600 | 80.9 | 6.97 | 43.1% | 17.39% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,300 | 78.4 | 6.94 | 42.5% | 14.43% |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,800 | 80.3 | 6.81 | 39.3% | 18.84% |
| Rory McIlroy | $12,600 | 84.3 | 6.69 | 37.3% | 25.26% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $15,800 | 92.1 | 5.83 | 15.1% | 34.71% |
Si Woo Kim ($10,500) leads all premium players in FanDuel Pts/$k at 7.41 with a 51.0% probability of hitting 8X. His California roots and Poa annua comfort give him a course-fit edge at Riviera. At 18.91% ownership he’s fairly owned, but the raw efficiency justifies the exposure.
Collin Morikawa ($10,800) offers the best combination of efficiency and narrative upside in the premium tier. His 7.25 Pts/$k and 47.6% at 8X pair with the best approach record at Riviera of anyone in the field. At 12.09% ownership — the lowest among premium plays — Morikawa is the clear leverage option if you’re paying up.
The fade candidates on FanDuel are Scheffler (5.83 Pts/$k, 34.71% owned) and McIlroy (6.69 Pts/$k, 25.26% owned). Both carry sub-40% 8X probabilities with the two highest ownership projections on the slate — a combination that makes them difficult to justify in GPP formats.
The Mid-Range: $8,000–$9,999 Sweet Spot
The $8,000–$8,999 FanDuel range is where this slate’s best risk-adjusted value lives. This tier averages 8.20 Pts/$k with a 58.2% average 8X probability — the highest of any price band.
Nick Taylor ($8,200) posts the highest 8X probability in the mid-range at 61.0% with a 8.49 Pts/$k. His 68.75% Top 40% provides a solid cut floor, and 6.76% ownership gives meaningful roster differentiation.
Max Homa ($8,000) combines past Genesis champion pedigree with a 60.3% 8X probability and just 4.46% ownership. At $8,000 on FanDuel, he’s the course-fit play with the best salary efficiency in this range.
Ryan Gerard ($8,400) and J.J. Spaun ($8,400) are identically priced on FanDuel and produce nearly identical 8X probabilities (60.1% and 59.9%). Gerard carries 11.65% ownership while Spaun sits at 8.01% — making Spaun the leverage option between the two.
Weather Update: Tee Time Advantage
There is a definite weather impact for Round 1. The early morning tee time wave faces a distinct disadvantage, with the late morning and early afternoon tee times carrying an advantage. Players in the late wave — teeing off from 9:44 AM onward — should benefit from improved conditions as the morning weather passes through.
Among the top FanDuel value plays, Max McGreevy, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Ryo Hisatsune, and Nick Taylor all tee off in the late wave — a favorable alignment of value and weather. The key early-wave value plays are Max Homa, Ryan Gerard, and Jacob Bridgeman. When building lineups, weighting toward late-wave players provides a structural edge in Round 1 scoring.
We have included an Early/Late tee time column in the simulation file so users can filter and build lineups with weather-informed wave exposure.
FanDuel Lineup Takeaways
Target the $8,000–$8,999 range aggressively. This tier offers the best combination of Pts/$k (8.20 average) and 8X probability (58.2% average) on the slate. Nick Taylor, Max Homa, Ryan Gerard, and J.J. Spaun are the cornerstones.
Fade Scheffler and McIlroy in GPPs. Their combined 59.97% ownership eats nearly 60% of the ownership budget across two players who clear 8X at just 15.1% and 37.3% respectively. The leverage math strongly favors alternatives.
If paying up, Morikawa and Si Woo Kim are the plays. Morikawa’s 12.09% ownership and Riviera approach record make him the premium leverage option. Si Woo Kim’s 51.0% at 8X is the only premium play that clears the coin-flip threshold.
Max McGreevy is the slate’s best per-dollar play. At $6,600 with 62.4% at 8X and 3.15% ownership, he’s the highest-efficiency, lowest-owned value option — a GPP cheat code in a late tee time.
Lean late wave for Round 1. Weather conditions favor the late tee times. Most of the top FanDuel value plays are conveniently in the late wave, making it easy to build weather-advantaged lineups without sacrificing efficiency.
FanDuel Simulation File — Complete simulation results with FanDuel salaries, Pts/$k, 6X–10X probabilities, ownership, and tee times for all 72 players.
