I am going to use my Fantasy Football Probability Engine customized for the FFPC Slim Draft to draft an actual team via slow draft process. The actual draft started today. May 19, 2026. I have the first overall pick. I will walk through the process of using my draft software and pick evaluation process for all 20 rounds.

Round 1

First, I setup the draft parameters in the draft app as 12 teams, pick 1, 20 rounds, QB/2RB/2WR/2FLEX.

I selected hide selected players to keep the player pool clean and easy to read. I unchecked the box that forces no QB before the 9th round because in a best ball draft QBs can go earlier than in a traditional “classic” draft.

You can also see all of my scheduled picks in the top of the screen.

next, I select “Sim Picks” and see the screen below.

I select the Run Simulation – Round 1 button and get the screen below.

This provides over 20 billion simulations of every possible combination of players I can select and every possible combination of players that my opponents can select. The app provides the starting lineup and projected points for the best team if you select a WR, RB, TE, or QB. Notice the team with an RB selected is 2485 PTS, and the team with the TE selected is 2360. I will select a RB here.

Now the page gives me three options at RB and the probability that each RB will score the highest of those three options, as follows.

The Simulated Projection Drafting model has CMC as 36% chance to outscore Saquon 33% and Gibbs/Bijan 31%. Note that simulations have Bijan at a statistical tie with Gibbs at 31%. According to probabilities CMC is the better pick but the probabilities are so close I will favor the younger ascending player in Gibbs. but you could not go wrong with CMC here.

2nd and 3rd Round

I enter the picks so far into my draft app and run two simulations to determine best part, one simulation with QB as a potential selection in each round, and one simulation where we wait on QB.

The Simulation with QB

The simulation where we wait on QB

As noted previously, we are running all 20 billion possible scenarios of picks and determining what pick creates the best possible path. VBD only assumes certain position availability and value. Our approach, Simulated Probability, SP Drafting, gives the user better information to make better drafting decisions.

Also note that if we had picked CMC in first round our simulated team starting lineup would have been higher, but we are using a probability approach not a linear math approach. Rarely does a player with higher projected pts out score the player with lower projected points. There is only a 4% chance that CMC outscores Gibbs.

We selected Malik Nabers at pick 2.12 because his probability was almost identical to AJ Brown and Rashee Rice. I believe the Giants offense is young and ascending so I picked Nabers, there was no incorrect choice here between the three WRs.

We selected Josh Allen at pick 3.01because the model said that we can build a strong group or RBs, WRs and TEs in later rounds that that teams with Josh Allen will likely outscore teams with other QBs.

Based on simulations, the app provides a projected starting lineup.