Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis | Signature Event | No Cut | Standard DK Scoring

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The PGA Tour arrives at one of the most iconic venues in all of golf — Pebble Beach Golf Links — for the first Signature Event of 2026. With a limited 80-player field, no cut, and standard DraftKings scoring, this is a week where roster construction matters as much as player selection. We ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations per player using our recalibrated DFSD skew-normal model and analyzed every possible lineup combination to find the edges worth targeting. Here’s what the data says.

The Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links & Spyglass Hill

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par-72 layout playing just 6,989 yards — one of the shortest tracks on the PGA Tour calendar. Designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant with a later renovation by Jack Nicklaus, this coastal masterpiece along the Monterey Peninsula has hosted six U.S. Opens and decades of this storied event.

The recipe for success at Pebble Beach starts and ends with approach play. With the course playing this short, driving distance is largely neutralized — what matters is precision with mid-irons and wedges into some of the smallest greens on Tour. Four par 5s offer eagle opportunities that contenders must capitalize on, while the par 3s — particularly the iconic 100-yard 7th hole perched above the Pacific — demand touch and distance control that varies wildly depending on coastal winds.

The Poa annua greens add another layer of complexity. Players who can read the subtle bumps and grain of Poa and convert birdie chances created by elite approach play will separate themselves. Scrambling carries more weight here than at most venues because the tiny green complexes mean even well-struck approaches can run off into challenging recovery positions.

Course history is a major factor at Pebble Beach. Defending champion Rory McIlroy won here in 2025 with a closing 66 and returns for his 2026 Tour debut. Justin Rose, the 2023 champion, arrives fresh off a victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. Jason Day has an extraordinary 12 career top-20 finishes in 16 trips to the Monterey Peninsula. When the wind blows off the Pacific, the coastal holes become an entirely different test — and experience navigating those conditions is an edge that doesn’t show up in a strokes-gained spreadsheet.

One round at Spyglass Hill Golf Course adds a wrinkle. At 7,035 yards with wider fairways but more punishing rough and elevation changes, Spyglass rewards a different profile than Pebble — players who can avoid trouble off the tee and manage a longer, more demanding layout. But with three of four rounds played at Pebble Beach, the short-course precision game dominates this week.

No-Cut Signature Format: What It Changes

The no-cut Signature Event format fundamentally alters DFS strategy. Every player in the 80-man field is guaranteed four rounds of scoring, which eliminates the floor risk that normally punishes expensive players. In a standard cut event, a $14,000 player who misses the cut returns near-zero fantasy points — a devastating blow. Here, even a bad week from a premium player still produces 50–60 DraftKings points, which limits the catastrophic downside that makes cheap value plays so critical in cut formats.

The practical effect is that spending up on elite players becomes significantly more viable. You’re paying for ceiling without the usual floor risk penalty. Our simulations confirm this — the optimal lineup construction under no-cut conditions concentrates salary in high-T40% players rather than spreading it across cheap value options.

The Scheffler Question: $14,000 and the Field’s Best Player

Scottie Scheffler enters at a field-high $14,000, and our simulations paint a clear picture of both his dominance and his limitations as a DFS play. His 25.64% win probability is more than triple the next closest player. He projects for a simulation mean of 99.4 fantasy points with a P90 of 127.6 — meaning in his top-10% outcomes, he’s delivering tournament-leading production. His 97.22% top-40 probability is the highest in the field by a wide margin, and he’s already recorded two top-10 finishes in two career starts at Pebble Beach.

But here’s the tension. At $14,000, Scheffler needs 140 fantasy points to reach 10X value — a number that requires a win or solo second. Our simulations give him just a 4.2% probability of clearing that threshold. That’s the lowest 10X probability of any player in the field by a wide margin. Even his 8X target of 112 points, which corresponds to roughly a top-5 finish, only clears in about 24.8% of simulations.

The real cost of Scheffler isn’t his salary — it’s the opportunity cost. Locking in $14,000 for one roster spot leaves just $36,000 for the remaining five players, forcing an average salary of $7,200 per spot. Our optimizer found the best possible Scheffler lineup projects for 508.5 total points:

Player	Salary	T40%	Sim Mean	10X Prob
Scottie Scheffler	$14,000	97.22%	99.4	4.2%
Cameron Young	$8,100	77.78%	88.0	60.8%
Ryan Gerard	$7,500	67.74%	83.1	64.9%
Min Woo Lee	$7,200	65.75%	82.3	70.7%
Sam Stevens	$7,000	62.41%	80.7	72.8%
Chris Kirk	$6,200	47.17%	75.0	82.3%
TOTAL	$50,000		508.5

That’s a strong lineup anchored by Scheffler’s elite ceiling. But it loses 14.3 expected points compared to the optimal non-Scheffler build.

The Optimal Build: Six Mid-Range Studs

Our lineup optimizer searched over 11 million salary-valid combinations and converged on one clear answer. The mathematically optimal lineup spends aggressively on six players in the $7,700–$9,100 range who all carry T40% probabilities above 70%, using every dollar of the $50,000 salary cap.

Player	Salary	T40%	Sim Mean	10X Prob
Xander Schauffele	$9,100	78.72%	88.6	39.9%
Ben Griffin	$8,400	77.78%	88.1	53.6%
Cameron Young	$8,100	77.78%	88.0	60.8%
Maverick McNealy	$8,800	77.27%	87.8	44.4%
Jake Knapp	$7,900	73.33%	85.8	60.9%
Harris English	$7,700	70.59%	84.5	62.7%
TOTAL	$50,000		522.8

This lineup projects for 522.8 points — 14.3 points more than the best Scheffler build. The combined P90 sum reaches 668.8 and the 99th percentile ceiling hits 822.7, meaning this group simultaneously maximizes both expected value and upside.

The logic is straightforward. Schauffele, Griffin, Young, McNealy, Knapp, and English are all clustered in the 70–79% T40% range — just a tick below elite — but priced $2,000–$5,000 less than Scheffler and McIlroy. That’s where the market inefficiency lives. You’re getting six players who each project for 84–89 points instead of one who projects for 99 and five who average 82. The cumulative advantage of six high-floor players outweighs one elite ceiling play in the vast majority of outcomes.

The top five lineups by expected points are all within 0.8 points of each other, with a core of Schauffele, Ben Griffin, and Cameron Young appearing in every single one. That trio is the mathematical backbone of this slate.

The Value Tier: Where GPP Lineups Are Won

Regardless of your build strategy, the sub-$7,000 tier is where DFS edges are most pronounced this week. Our simulations identified several players whose 10X and 12X value probabilities dramatically exceed what their price tags suggest.

Chris Kirk ($6,200) leads the value tier with an 82.3% probability of hitting 10X value and 46.5% at 12X. He has a dozen career starts at Pebble Beach and a precision-oriented game that fits this course profile. At his price, he needs just 62 DraftKings points for 10X — a threshold that corresponds roughly to a 50th-place finish. That’s an enormous margin of safety in a no-cut field of 80.

Steven Fisk ($6,000) is the cheapest player in the field and carries the highest 10X probability at 82.5%. At $6,000, his 10X target is just 60 points — achievable with a mid-pack finish. His 36.0% T40% is the lowest among starters, but the no-cut format means he’s guaranteed four rounds to accumulate points.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,200) and Brian Harman ($6,200) both clear 81% for 10X value, with Harman bringing significant Pebble Beach experience and a tidy short game built for these small green complexes. Lucas Glover ($6,300) projects at 81.1% for 10X and 45.4% at 12X, making him one of the best per-dollar values in the field.

The sub-$7,000 tier averages 76.6% for 10X across all 33 players — meaning more than three-quarters of simulated outcomes produce GPP-viable returns from the cheapest roster slots. That’s a structural advantage you can exploit in any lineup construction.

The Mid-Range Sweet Spot: $7,000–$9,000

The middle tier is where this week’s most efficient plays live. These players carry enough T40% to project for high-floor scores while remaining cheap enough to pair with other premium options.

Sam Stevens ($7,000) stands out with a 72.8% probability of reaching 10X value — the highest in the mid-range. His 62.41% T40% puts him firmly in the contribute-every-round zone, and his price point leaves maximum flexibility for the rest of the roster.

Cameron Young ($7,900) is arguably the single best play in the field when you consider the intersection of sim mean (88.0), salary efficiency, and 10X probability (60.8%). His 77.78% T40% matches players priced $2,000–$3,000 higher. Young is a legitimate win contender priced as a mid-tier option — a pricing error our simulations exploit in every optimal lineup.

Other standout mid-range options include Min Woo Lee ($7,200, 70.7% at 10X), Corey Conners ($7,000, 70.9%), and Akshay Bhatia ($7,300, 66.0%). All carry T40% probabilities above 60% with price tags that leave room for premium stacking elsewhere.

Course Fit Players to Watch

Beyond the raw simulation numbers, several players carry Pebble Beach-specific edges that our single-input model doesn’t fully capture.

Jason Day ($8,500) has an extraordinary track record at this venue — 12 top-20s in 16 career starts. His approach game from 125–175 yards, the range that dominates Pebble Beach, has been dialed all season. At $8,500 with a 71.01% T40% and a sim mean of 84.6, he represents a course-fit overlay that could push his actual performance above our model’s projection.

Justin Rose ($9,400) just won the Farmers Insurance Open and returns to a course where he captured the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His 77.27% T40% and 87.9 sim mean make him a strong premium option, but his course history suggests even more upside than the topline numbers indicate.

Russell Henley ($9,200) has posted 10 consecutive top-20 finishes and ranks among the best in the field in true strokes gained on approach. At Pebble Beach, where approach play is the primary separator, Henley’s precision game translates directly to scoring opportunities. His 88.5 sim mean and 78.72% T40% make him one of the strongest premium plays on the slate.

Chris Gotterup ($9,000) enters as the hottest player in the field. Fresh off his overtime victory at the WM Phoenix Open, Gotterup sits atop the FedExCup standings and has doubled his career win total to four in just four events this season. His 76.19% T40% and 87.1 sim mean at $9,000 make him a compelling premium option for anyone building balanced cores.

Building Your Lineups: Practical Takeaways

If you’re building for cash games and 50/50s, the optimal lineup construction is clear: concentrate salary in six mid-range players ($7,700–$9,100) who all carry 70%+ T40% probabilities. The no-cut format rewards this approach because you’re eliminating floor risk from six high-probability players simultaneously. The optimal lineup projects for 522.8 points with a combined ceiling of 822.7.

If you’re building for GPP tournaments, the decision framework depends on field size. In smaller GPPs, the optimal six-stud build is still your best weapon — it projects higher and wins more often. In massive-field GPPs where you need to differentiate, Scheffler lineups offer a unique ceiling structure. His P90 of 127.6 points is nearly 10 points above anyone else in the field. In the roughly 10% of simulations where Scheffler fires a top-3 finish, a well-constructed Scheffler lineup can beat any other build in the contest.

In either structure, the value tier slots should emphasize players with 10X probabilities above 80%. Kirk, Fisk, Grillo, Harman, and Glover are the names our simulations flag most consistently as efficient value anchors across thousands of lineup combinations.

Player Simulation File — Complete simulation results for all 80 players available for download.

Player Lineup File