March 4, 2026
Bay Hill Club & Lodge — Orlando, FL
Signature Event | Cut Event (Top 50 & Ties) | Standard DK Scoring | 72 Players
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The PGA Tour continues the Florida swing with the third Signature Event of the season at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge. After back-to-back Signature Events at Pebble Beach and Riviera and last week’s full-field Cognizant Classic, the 72-player Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to one of the most demanding layouts on the annual schedule. With a $20 million purse, standard DraftKings scoring, and a cut to the top 50 and ties (plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead), this week combines elite-field concentration with real cut risk. We ran 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations per player using our two-stage bimodal mixture model and analyzed the data to find the edges worth targeting. Here’s what the numbers say.
Tee Time Wave Analysis: Slight AM Advantage
The AM tee time wave holds a slight structural advantage this week at Bay Hill. Morning players will generally face calmer winds and marginally softer greens, while the PM wave will contend with typical afternoon thermals and firmer conditions. The split is notable — 50 players tee off in the AM wave versus just 22 in the PM — which concentrates much of the field’s depth in the morning.
This is not a dramatic edge. Bay Hill’s scoring conditions are demanding regardless of tee time, and elite players in the PM wave like Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick have the ball-striking to overcome marginal afternoon disadvantages. However, when choosing between similarly profiled players at comparable price points, the AM wave provides a small but real tiebreaker. The advantage is most meaningful at the value tier, where weaker ball-strikers are more susceptible to wind-driven scoring variance.
TIEBREAKER PRINCIPLE: When two players offer similar simulation profiles and salary, favor the AM wave option. This is a marginal edge — not a reason to avoid strong PM plays entirely, but enough to matter over a season of lineup construction.
The Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par-72 layout stretching 7,466 yards through the softly undulating terrain of Orlando, Florida. Originally designed by Dick Wilson in 1961 and reimagined by Arnold Palmer after he purchased the club in the mid-1970s, Bay Hill has hosted the Arnold Palmer Invitational for 48 years and consistently ranks among the most difficult venues on the PGA Tour calendar. The past nine editions have all produced scoring averages over par.
The recipe for success at Bay Hill starts with elite ball-striking. The course demands precision off the tee and on approach, with water hazards coming into play on a significant number of holes. The Bermuda greens are firm and fast, rewarding committed putting strokes and punishing players who can’t control their approach spin. The course features four par 5s, four par 3s, and ten par 4s.
The closing stretch is one of the most iconic in professional golf. The reachable par-5 16th, the treacherous par-3 17th, and the mettle-testing par-4 18th — with its kidney-shaped green fronted by rocks and water — create the kind of finishing sequence where tournaments are won and lost. Scottie Scheffler’s 35-foot birdie bomb on the 15th was the exclamation point on his dominant 2024 victory, while Russell Henley’s eagle on the 16th was the difference-maker in his 2025 win.
Course history matters enormously at Bay Hill. Scheffler has never finished outside the top 25 in five starts here. Henley needed nine tries before winning but had consistently made cuts. The familiarity edge is real.
Signature Event Format: What It Changes
The Signature Event format with 72 players differs meaningfully from last week’s full-field Cognizant Classic (123 players). With only 72 players, the cut to the top 50 and ties is less punishing — roughly 70% or more of the field typically makes the weekend. Most competitive players carry 75% or higher cut probabilities, while sub-$6,500 players drop to approximately 57.6% or even 46.7%.
The $20 million purse and 700 FedExCup points create enormous incentive at the top of the leaderboard. Scottie Scheffler’s $14,100 price tag is the highest on the slate by $2,500, reflecting his dominant position.
The Elite Tier: $9,600–$14,100
Scottie Scheffler ($14,100 | AM | 24.29% Own) is the clear class of the field at 22.73% win probability. The two-time Bay Hill champion (2022, 2024) has never finished worse than T-25 in five starts here. His 105.0 projected points lead the field by six points. At $14,100 he needs 141 points for 10X — just a 6.27% probability — but his 37.23% 8X rate makes him the safest cash anchor. At 24.29% ownership he’ll be in nearly every cash lineup.
Rory McIlroy ($11,600 | PM | 19.34% Own) enters at 9.26% win probability with a 99.0 projected mean. The 2018 Bay Hill champion carries a 24.07% 10X probability. His PM tee time introduces a slight disadvantage, but McIlroy’s elite ball-striking can overcome marginal afternoon conditions. His high ownership means fading him in GPPs provides differentiation.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300 | PM | 16.73% Own) is the reigning FedExCup champion with strong early-season form. His 39.11% 10X and 11.69% 12X provide premium upside. PM tee time, but his iron play travels in any conditions.
Xander Schauffele ($10,000 | AM | 15.57% Own) combines premium talent with the AM wave. His 40.96% 10X and 13.17% 12X nearly match Fleetwood at $300 less with a morning tee time — making him the more efficient premium play.
| Player | Salary | Wave | Proj Pts | T40% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $14,100 | AM | 105.0 | 96.6% | 6.3% | 0.3% | 24.29% |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,600 | PM | 99.0 | 89.5% | 24.1% | 4.1% | 19.34% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,300 | PM | 96.0 | 85.2% | 39.1% | 11.7% | 16.73% |
| Xander Schauffele | $10,000 | AM | 94.0 | 82.5% | 41.0% | 13.2% | 15.57% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $9,800 | PM | 94.0 | 82.1% | 43.8% | 14.8% | 15.34% |
| Collin Morikawa | $9,600 | AM | 93.0 | 80.4% | 45.2% | 15.7% | 8.72% |
Collin Morikawa ($9,600 | AM | 8.72% Own) is the premier leverage play in the premium tier. He led through 54 holes at Bay Hill in 2025 before finishing second to Henley, and he won at Pebble Beach earlier this season. At just 8.72% ownership with a 45.20% 10X, AM tee time, and proven course fit, Morikawa offers the rare combination of elite talent and significant underownership. He’s the top GPP pivot off the chalk in this tier.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,800 | PM | 15.34% Own) carries the highest 10X probability in the elite tier at 43.79% with a 14.82% 12X rate. His precision game fits Bay Hill perfectly. The PM placement is a mild concern but not a dealbreaker at this talent level.
The Upper-Mid Tier: $8,800–$9,400
This tier features several higher-owned players with strong simulation profiles. The AM wave dominance here is notable — four of five players in this range tee off in the morning.
Si Woo Kim ($9,200 | AM | 15.90% Own) carries the highest 10X probability in this tier at 53.04% with a 22.36% 12X rate. His 93.0 projected points match Morikawa at $400 less. At 15.90% ownership he’s well-backed, but the simulation profile supports the exposure.
Russell Henley ($9,400 | AM | 15.22% Own) is the defending champion who won at 11-under in 2025 with a clutch eagle on the 16th. His 47.28% 10X and 18.22% 12X are strong. Morning tee time pairs perfectly with his accuracy-first approach.
Cameron Young ($9,100 | AM | 14.79% Own) brings elite driving distance to Bay Hill’s par 5s. His 50.65% 10X and 20.22% 12X at 14.79% ownership make him a solid core play with a 9:15 AM tee time.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,800 | AM | 10.14% Own) delivers 53.99% 10X and 23.95% 12X — the best ceiling rates in this tier. At 10.14% ownership he’s at the lower end of the higher-owned spectrum, providing a blend of reliability and moderate leverage.
| Player | Salary | Wave | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Russell Henley | $9,400 | AM | 92.0 | 47.3% | 18.2% | 15.22% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,300 | PM | 91.0 | 47.0% | 17.7% | 14.65% |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,200 | AM | 93.0 | 53.0% | 22.4% | 15.90% |
| Cameron Young | $9,100 | AM | 91.0 | 50.7% | 20.2% | 14.79% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $9,000 | AM | 89.0 | 49.7% | 20.6% | 9.72% |
| Harris English | $8,900 | AM | 90.0 | 53.3% | 23.4% | 10.36% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,800 | AM | 90.0 | 54.0% | 24.0% | 10.14% |
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300 | PM | 14.65% Own) is the lone PM player in this tier with meaningful ownership. His 46.96% 10X and elite short game translate well to Bay Hill, and his 12th consecutive start here provides deep course familiarity. The PM tee time is a mild negative but not enough to avoid him.
Harris English ($8,900 | AM | 10.36% Own) and Robert MacIntyre ($9,000 | AM | 9.72% Own) are near the ownership boundary. English’s 53.27% 10X edges MacIntyre’s 49.70%, and both tee off in the AM. English is the slightly more efficient play.
The Mid-Range Sweet Spot: $7,400–$8,600
This is where lineup construction gets most interesting. Several higher-owned players deliver 10X probabilities above 55%, and the AM wave provides a small but actionable tiebreaker between similarly profiled options.
Kurt Kitayama ($8,200 | AM | 16.97% Own) is the highest-owned mid-range play with a 62.20% 10X and 32.51% 12X. His AM tee time at 11:45 gives him favorable morning conditions, and his approach play fits Bay Hill’s demanding greens.
Shane Lowry ($8,100 | AM | 16.27% Own) brings the strongest Bay Hill course history in this tier — top-10 finishes in each of the last two years. His 62.92% 10X and 33.11% 12X are excellent. Coming off heartbreak at the Cognizant Classic, Lowry arrives motivated with a 10:05 AM tee time.
Jake Knapp ($8,600 | PM | 17.43% Own) is the highest-owned player in this tier at 17.43% and carries a 56.30% 10X with a 25.88% 12X. His PM tee time (12:05) is a mild negative, but his power game fits Bay Hill’s par 5s. Acceptable in both cash and GPP formats.
| Player | Salary | Wave | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Jake Knapp | $8,600 | PM | 89.0 | 56.3% | 25.9% | 17.43% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $8,400 | PM | 87.0 | 55.8% | 26.6% | 16.69% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $8,200 | AM | 88.0 | 62.2% | 32.5% | 16.97% |
| Shane Lowry | $8,100 | AM | 88.0 | 62.9% | 33.1% | 16.27% |
| Min Woo Lee | $7,900 | AM | 88.0 | 67.3% | 39.1% | 15.17% |
| Justin Rose | $7,900 | AM | 87.0 | 64.6% | 36.4% | 14.19% |
| Adam Scott | $7,800 | AM | 87.0 | 66.4% | 38.3% | 14.42% |
| Mav. McNealy | $7,800 | PM | 86.0 | 64.3% | 35.8% | 13.65% |
| Pierceson Coody | $7,600 | AM | 85.0 | 66.8% | 38.5% | 11.32% |
| Sepp Straka | $7,400 | AM | 86.0 | 71.2% | 45.1% | 10.01% |
Min Woo Lee ($7,900 | AM | 15.17% Own) delivers a 67.28% 10X and 39.09% 12X with an 8:50 AM tee time. The Australian has been in outstanding form — runner-up at Pebble Beach and T-12 at Riviera. His 88.0 projected points at $7,900 produces exceptional salary efficiency.
Adam Scott ($7,800 | AM | 14.42% Own) quietly matches Min Woo Lee’s ceiling at 66.42% 10X and 38.29% 12X. His smooth swing thrives in Bay Hill’s morning conditions, and 14.42% ownership provides reliability.
Sepp Straka ($7,400 | AM | 10.01% Own) is the single most efficient play on the slate. His 71.17% 10X leads all players with 75% cut probability, and his 45.09% 12X is extraordinary. The Austrian delivered a T-5 at Bay Hill in 2025 and was recently runner-up at Pebble Beach. At the 10% ownership threshold with a 9:15 AM tee time, he’s a must-consider for both cash and GPP formats.
Ludvig Aberg ($8,400 | PM | 16.69% Own) fits Bay Hill’s blueprint with elite long-iron play and strong birdie production. His 55.79% 10X at 16.69% ownership is solid. The 1:00 PM tee time is a consideration but not disqualifying given his talent level.
Maverick McNealy ($7,800 | PM | 13.65% Own) offers a 64.33% 10X and 35.84% 12X. His PM tee time (12:35) is a mild concern, but his consistency and price point make him viable when paired with an AM-heavy core.
The Value Tier: $6,800–$7,700
The value tier features several higher-owned AM players with exceptional simulation ceilings, along with PM options that require a more cautious approach.
Ryan Gerard ($7,200 | AM | 10.16% Own) is the standout value play of the entire slate. His 74.98% 10X is the highest in the field regardless of salary, and his 49.47% 12X approaches coin-flip territory. His breakout 2026 season — five-for-five in made cuts with multiple top-5 finishes — continues to exceed expectations. AM tee time at 11:20 provides the slight conditions edge.
Michael Thorbjornsen ($6,900 | AM | 12.44% Own) is the highest-owned deep value play with a 73.78% 10X and 49.70% 12X at $6,900. His 8:50 AM tee time gives him the calmest morning conditions, and his ceiling rivals players priced $1,000 higher.
Daniel Berger ($6,800 | AM | 11.48% Own) is a Jupiter, Florida resident who treats Bay Hill as a home game. His 73.61% 10X and 49.53% 12X at $6,800 nearly match Thorbjornsen at a $100 savings with an even earlier 8:40 AM tee time.
| Player | Salary | Wave | Cut% | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Jason Day | $7,700 | AM | 75.0% | 83.0 | 61.6% | 33.0% | 10.08% |
| J. Bridgeman | $7,700 | PM | 75.0% | 84.0 | 63.1% | 34.4% | 10.62% |
| Pierceson Coody | $7,600 | AM | 75.0% | 85.0 | 66.8% | 38.5% | 11.32% |
| Justin Thomas | $7,600 | PM | 75.0% | 83.0 | 63.8% | 35.2% | 10.55% |
| Ryan Gerard | $7,200 | AM | 75.0% | 86.0 | 75.0% | 49.5% | 10.16% |
| Thorbjornsen | $6,900 | AM | 75.0% | 82.0 | 73.8% | 49.7% | 12.44% |
| Daniel Berger | $6,800 | AM | 75.0% | 81.0 | 73.6% | 49.5% | 11.48% |
Justin Thomas ($7,600 | PM | 10.55% Own) is making his 2026 PGA Tour debut after back surgery in November. His 63.83% 10X at $7,600 is attractive, but the PM tee time and recovery uncertainty compound to create higher variance. Viable in GPPs, but exercise caution in cash formats.
Jacob Bridgeman ($7,700 | PM | 10.62% Own) carries a 63.14% 10X with a 1:10 PM tee time. Solid simulation profile but the PM placement is a mild headwind. Best used in GPP formats or when paired with a heavy AM core.
Pierceson Coody ($7,600 | AM | 11.32% Own) offers a 66.75% 10X and 38.52% 12X with an 11:45 AM tee time. His strong early-season form and morning conditions make him a reliable higher-owned value option.
AM Wave Leverage Plays: Low-Owned, High-Ceiling
For GPP builders, the AM wave contains several exceptional sub-10% ownership players who combine morning conditions with elite simulation ceilings. These provide the differentiation that wins tournaments.
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Matthew McCarty | $6,600 | 8:20 AM | 80.0 | 75.3% | 51.5% | 6.39% |
| Corey Conners | $6,900 | 9:05 AM | 83.0 | 75.1% | 51.3% | 4.97% |
| Keith Mitchell | $6,900 | 10:40 AM | 83.0 | 74.1% | 50.1% | 4.97% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $7,200 | 10:50 AM | 85.0 | 72.7% | 46.8% | 9.71% |
| J.T. Poston | $6,600 | 10:40 AM | 79.0 | 73.5% | 49.3% | 4.03% |
| Alex Noren | $7,300 | 8:40 AM | 84.0 | 70.6% | 44.3% | 9.17% |
| Max Greyserman | $6,700 | 8:20 AM | 79.0 | 71.3% | 46.5% | 6.12% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $7,500 | 9:45 AM | 84.0 | 67.2% | 40.5% | 9.50% |
| Sam Stevens | $7,000 | 11:55 AM | 81.0 | 71.0% | 46.0% | 4.49% |
| Joel Dahmen | $6,300 | 7:40 AM | 74.0 | 70.7% | 47.2% | 2.80% |
Matthew McCarty ($6,600 | AM | 6.39% Own) carries the highest 12X probability on the entire slate at 51.53% with a 75.34% 10X rate. His 8:20 AM tee time gives him ideal morning conditions, and at just 6.39% ownership he’s the ultimate AM GPP leverage play.
Corey Conners ($6,900 | AM | 4.97% Own) finished third at Bay Hill in 2025 and delivers a 75.08% 10X and 51.33% 12X at under 5% ownership. His precision game and proven course fit make him one of the purest leverage plays on the board.
Keith Mitchell ($6,900 | AM | 4.97% Own) matches Conners at the same salary and ownership level with a 74.11% 10X and 50.08% 12X. A former Cognizant Classic champion and proven Florida swing performer.
Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,200 | AM | 9.71% Own) offers a 72.67% 10X and 46.76% 12X at a reasonable price point. His morning tee time and 85.0 projected points make him an efficient bridge between value and mid-range tiers.
PM Wave Low-Owned Players: Approach with Caution
Low-owned PM wave players carry slightly elevated variance this week. The combination of afternoon conditions and limited public backing means these players face mild scoring headwinds alongside low ownership floors. They remain viable GPP options — this is a slight edge, not a disqualifying factor — but limit exposure and avoid building lineups anchored around multiple low-owned PM players.
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,100 | 12:25 PM | 84.0 | 73.9% | 47.9% | 9.43% |
| Keegan Bradley | $7,500 | 12:35 PM | 84.0 | 67.2% | 40.5% | 9.43% |
| Jordan Spieth | $7,400 | 11:55 AM | 83.0 | 66.2% | 39.3% | 5.07% |
| Nick Taylor | $7,300 | 12:25 PM | 84.0 | 69.8% | 43.4% | 5.12% |
| Rickie Fowler | $8,000 | 1:40 PM | 87.0 | 64.0% | 35.6% | 8.30% |
| Sam Burns | $8,000 | 12:15 PM | 87.0 | 63.5% | 35.4% | 7.73% |
| Chris Gotterup | $8,300 | 1:10 PM | 87.0 | 57.9% | 28.3% | 8.30% |
| Viktor Hovland | $8,500 | 1:30 PM | 87.0 | 54.8% | 25.9% | 8.30% |
J.J. Spaun ($7,100 | PM | 9.43% Own) has the strongest raw 10X probability among PM low-owned plays at 73.86%. His simulation ceiling is genuine, but the 12:25 PM tee time adds slight variance. Best as a single PM value dart in an otherwise AM-heavy build.
Jordan Spieth ($7,400 | PM | 5.07% Own) has posted T-4 finishes at Bay Hill in both 2021 and 2023. His proven course fit partially offsets the PM concern. At 5.07% ownership, he’s a strong GPP differentiator.
Rickie Fowler ($8,000 | PM | 8.30% Own), Sam Burns ($8,000 | PM | 7.73% Own), and Viktor Hovland ($8,500 | PM | 8.30% Own) are all talented PM mid-range options with sub-10% ownership. Their simulation profiles are strong — Fowler’s 63.95% 10X is particularly compelling — but the afternoon tee times introduce mild scoring risk. Use selectively, favoring no more than one PM low-owned player per lineup.
Ownership Projections: Finding Leverage
Our ownership algorithm projects Scottie Scheffler as the clear leader at 24.29%, nearly five points above Rory McIlroy at 19.34%. The next tier: Jake Knapp (17.43% — PM), Kurt Kitayama (16.97% — AM), Tommy Fleetwood (16.73% — PM), Ludvig Aberg (16.69% — PM), Shane Lowry (16.27% — AM), Si Woo Kim (15.90% — AM), and Xander Schauffele (15.57% — AM).
A notable pattern: four of the seven highest-owned players below Scheffler and McIlroy are in the PM wave. This creates a structural GPP opportunity — the public gravitates toward PM mid-range names like Knapp, Aberg, and Fleetwood, while AM value options (Thorbjornsen 12.44%, Berger 11.48%, Coody 11.32%) offer comparable or better simulation ceilings with morning conditions.
The purest leverage lives in the AM sub-10% tier: Corey Conners (4.97%), Keith Mitchell (4.97%), J.T. Poston (4.03%), Matthew McCarty (6.39%), and Joel Dahmen (2.80%) all carry 10X probabilities above 70% with morning tee times and minimal public backing.
Building Your Lineups: Practical Takeaways
Cash Games and 50/50s: Build around higher-owned AM players. Anchor with Scheffler ($14,100) or Schauffele ($10,000), add AM core from the $7,800–$9,400 range (Henley, Si Woo Kim, Cantlay, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott), and fill with AM value plays (Thorbjornsen, Berger, Coody). PM players like Fitzpatrick, Matsuyama, and Knapp are acceptable in cash but limit to 1–2 per lineup. The slight AM edge compounds over a full slate of lineups.
GPP Tournaments: Use AM low-owned leverage as the differentiator. Start with Sepp Straka ($7,400), Morikawa ($9,600), or Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,200) as underowned AM anchors. Add deep-value AM plays from McCarty, Conners, Keith Mitchell, or J.T. Poston. If including PM players, limit to one and favor high-ceiling options like J.J. Spaun ($7,100 | 9.43%) or Rickie Fowler ($8,000 | 8.30%). Avoid stacking multiple low-owned PM players.
The key principle for Bay Hill: ball-striking drives outcomes. Water comes into play constantly, greens are firm and fast, and the closing stretch punishes anything less than precise iron play. Players who keep the ball in play accumulate fantasy points steadily while the field donates strokes to hazards. Prioritize ball-striking metrics, course history, and — as a tiebreaker — AM wave placement.
Player Simulation File — Complete simulation results for all 72 players available for download.
DFS Lineups — Lineups are available for download.
Keys to using the lineup report: use the filters to determine how many players you want from AM or PM tee time wave, select players you want to key in your lineup, and filter out any ownership bands you want to fade.
Player Simulation File — Complete simulation results for all 72 players available for download.
DFS Lineup File — Filter lineups by AM/PM wave and High to Low OWN%, then filter players.
