When predicting a future event, there are no right or wrong answers. If you play Roulette (with two sets of zeros), and you put your money on RED, there is a 47% chance you will win and 53% chance you will loose. If the results come up as BLACK, you did not make a bad choice, you are merely at the mercy of probability and outcome.

The same is true for fantasy football. When an EXPERT comes on the radio or television and PREDICTS the outcome of a game, that is like an EXPERT predicting the results of a roulette wheel. It is not possible. If it was possible to pick the results of a future event with certainty, the sportsbooks would not allow you to wager on the event. Instead the EXPERT should tell you the probability chance of an outcome and then you can decide your risk/reward tolerance.

For example, in week 3, you might have has the following wide receivers on your season long Fantasy Football team;

Per DFS Dashboard, Nico Collins has a 44.44% chance to achieve 18.09 PTS

However, there is a 34.48% chance for Hollywood Brown, 32.79% chance for Khalil Shakir and 32.79% chance for Quentin Johnston to contribute to your team. The probability that at least one of these players will perform is almost 70%, the probability that all 3 of the players will perform is 3.8%, and the probability that only 2 will perform is 26%.

So, there is a 33% chance that you will guess correctly, and almost 40% chance that you will guess incorrectly. Don’t let anyone tell you that they can pick the correct player, it is literally a crap shoot on who will perform. And don’t beat yourself up for picking the wrong player, there was literally a higher probability chance of picking the wrong player than picking the correct player.

One more important item to highlight. DONT OVERREACT TO THE RESULTS. The outcome of every event is subject to probability not certainty. In week 3, DFS Dashboard assessed a high probability chance that either Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins would perform well against Minnesota. Obviously none of those events occurred. Sportsbooksdo not over react. In week 4 the probabilities will not change drastically, so the you should not read more into week 3 results than the sportsbooks do.