March 12,15, 2026 | TPC Sawgrass , Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Full-Field Event | Cut Event (Top 65 & Ties) | Standard DK Scoring | 123 Players
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The PGA Tour’s flagship event arrives at TPC Sawgrass for the 52nd time with a $25 million purse on the line. After the Florida swing’s Signature Events at Pebble Beach, Riviera, and last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational , where Akshay Bhatia edged Daniel Berger in a playoff , the Tour now turns to Pete Dye’s iconic Stadium Course for the biggest regular-season event in golf. At 123 players, this is a full-field cut event, with the top 65 and ties advancing to the weekend. We ran simulations per player using our two-stage bimodal mixture model to find the edges worth targeting. Here’s what the numbers say.
The Course: TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 layout stretching 7,261 yards through the wetlands of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1980, the Stadium Course is famous for its target golf demands, bermuda turf, and the iconic island-green par-3 17th , arguably the most famous hole in professional golf. Water is adjacent to every hole except the par-3 8th. Dye’s “grenade attack architecture” , mounds, hollows, and bunkers ringing every green , punishes anything less than precise approach play. The course has produced more double bogeys than any other non-major venue in three of the last four seasons.
Success at TPC Sawgrass demands a combination of precision off the tee, elite iron play, and a calm decision-making process under pressure. The course is not conquered , it is survived. Players who grip it and rip it invariably donate to the water. Course experience is invaluable here: only three players in the event’s history won on their first appearance.
Cut Structure: What It Changes
At 123 players, the Players Championship carries real cut risk. The top 65 and ties through 36 holes advance. Based on our simulations, players priced $9,500 and above carry 75% or higher cut probabilities. The $8,500,$9,400 range drops to 75% for most players. Mid-range players ($7,000,$8,400) are mixed , some hold 75% cut probability, others drop to 57.6%. The deepest value tier ($6,100,$6,800) carries cut probabilities of 40.8% to 46.7%, meaning roughly half the field in this range is going home after Friday.
This structure affects lineup construction meaningfully. In cash games, stacking multiple sub-$7,000 players without elite ceilings is dangerous. In GPPs, a correct dart on a high-ceiling player who makes the cut can be the differentiator that wins a tournament.
The Elite Tier: $9,500,$14,200
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Win% | Top10% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $14,200 | 8:52 AM | 100.0 | 18.87% | 61.83% | 3.57% | 0.12% | 26.62% |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,700 | 1:42 PM | 90.0 | 6.90% | 37.31% | 11.35% | 1.09% | 19.01% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,300 | 8:52 AM | 85.0 | 3.85% | 27.78% | 21.71% | 4.13% | 15.84% |
| Collin Morikawa | $9,800 | 8:40 AM | 87.0 | 4.65% | 30.77% | 31.58% | 8.29% | 16.94% |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,600 | 1:42 PM | 81.0 | 3.33% | 24.39% | 25.45% | 5.64% | 14.14% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,500 | 1:42 PM | 80.0 | 2.56% | 21.74% | 25.11% | 5.93% | 7.45% |
Scottie Scheffler ($14,200 | AM | 26.62% Own) is the field’s dominant force at 18.87% win probability and 100.0 projected points , both the highest on the slate. The two-time Players champion (2023 and 2024) has as much course experience and success at TPC Sawgrass as anyone in the field, short of Jack Nicklaus. His 8:52 AM tee time provides the slight morning conditions edge. At $14,200 he needs 142 points for 10X , just a 3.57% probability , but his safety profile (61.83% top-10 rate, 95% cut probability) makes him the anchor for nearly every cash lineup at 26.62% ownership.
Rory McIlroy ($11,700 | PM | 19.01% Own) arrives as the defending champion but with a concerning subplot: he withdrew before the third round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with lower-back spasms. The 2018 and 2025 Players champion carries a 6.90% win probability and 90.0 projected points, both reflecting the uncertainty around his health. His 1:42 PM tee time adds mild conditions variance. At 19.01% ownership, fading McIlroy in GPPs offers leverage , if he withdraws again or struggles, those who avoided him will have a structural edge. His 11.35% 10X probability underscores the health risk embedded in his projection.
Collin Morikawa ($9,800 | AM | 16.94% Own) is the top value play in the elite tier. His 4.65% win probability and 87.0 projected points rank him fourth in the field, yet he checks in at $400 less than McIlroy with a morning tee time. Morikawa’s precision iron game is tailor-made for TPC Sawgrass’s approach demands. His 31.58% 10X rate at 16.94% ownership gives him a meaningful edge in tournament formats. The 8:40 AM tee time means ideal conditions.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300 | AM | 15.84% Own) is the reigning FedExCup champion with strong form across the 2026 season. His 21.71% 10X and 4.13% 12X rate make him a legitimate ceiling play. The 8:52 AM tee time pairs beautifully with his iron play, which travels to any conditions.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500 | PM | 7.45% Own) is the most underowned player in the elite tier. His 2.56% win probability and seven career top-25s at TPC Sawgrass suggest proven course fit. His 1:42 PM tee time introduces mild afternoon variance, but at 7.45% ownership , roughly half the exposure of similarly-priced peers , he offers significant leverage. A low-owned PM elite with elite course history is a compelling GPP pivot.
The Upper-Mid Tier: $8,700,$9,400
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Win% | Top10% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Si Woo Kim | $9,300 | 8:40 AM | 86.0 | 4.00% | 28.57% | 37.75% | 12.14% | 17.57% |
| Chris Gotterup | $9,200 | 1:54 PM | 77.0 | 2.17% | 18.87% | 24.22% | 5.57% | 9.15% |
| Viktor Hovland | $9,100 | 9:04 AM | 79.0 | 2.63% | 21.05% | 29.41% | 7.81% | 13.90% |
| Russell Henley | $9,000 | 9:04 AM | 85.0 | 3.57% | 27.03% | 41.37% | 15.02% | 16.78% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $8,900 | 9:04 AM | 79.0 | 2.38% | 20.62% | 32.72% | 10.04% | 10.06% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $8,800 | 9:04 AM | 78.0 | 2.17% | 19.23% | 31.96% | 9.49% | 9.39% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $8,700 | 8:40 AM | 81.0 | 3.45% | 24.39% | 39.37% | 13.60% | 15.27% |
Si Woo Kim ($9,300 | AM | 17.57% Own) has the highest 10X probability in this tier at 37.75% and leads all upper-mid players in projected points at 86.0. The 2017 Players champion knows this course as well as anyone in the field. His 8:40 AM tee time and 28.57% top-10 rate make him a reliable cash anchor. At 17.57% ownership he’s well-backed but the numbers support the exposure.
Russell Henley ($9,000 | AM | 16.78% Own) is the defending Arnold Palmer champion who arrives with elite momentum. His 41.37% 10X and 15.02% 12X lead the tier in ceiling rates. Four AM players in this tier , Henley, Aberg, Kim, and Hovland , tee off before the afternoon conditions roll in. Of the group, Henley’s ceiling upside stands out most clearly.
Ludvig Aberg ($8,700 | AM | 15.27% Own) finished T-3 at the Arnold Palmer last week and carries genuine TPC Sawgrass upside. His long-iron play fits the course blueprint. At 39.37% 10X and 13.60% 12X with a morning tee time at $8,700, he’s arguably the most efficiently priced player in the tier.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,900 | AM | 10.06% Own) offers a 32.72% 10X at just over 10% ownership. His precision game is purpose-built for target golf. The 9:04 AM tee time helps. At that ownership level with those ceiling rates, he’s a strong tournament differentiator.
Chris Gotterup ($9,200 | PM | 9.15% Own) won at Phoenix earlier this season and arrives with momentum, but his 1:54 PM tee time is the soft spot. His 24.22% 10X , below the tier norm at similar pricing , reflects the PM conditions discount. Best in GPP formats where his recent form creates leverage.
The Mid-Range Sweet Spot: $7,500,$8,600
This is where lineup construction gets most interesting. Several players deliver 10X probabilities exceeding 50%, and the AM wave continues to offer a meaningful tiebreaker.
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Young | $8,100 | 1:54 PM | 80.0 | 49.80% | 21.28% | 21.75% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $8,200 | 8:28 AM | 77.0 | 41.53% | 15.52% | 18.64% |
| Ben Griffin | $8,300 | 1:06 PM | 75.0 | 36.29% | 12.40% | 17.13% |
| Min Woo Lee | $7,500 | 1:54 PM | 77.0 | 55.26% | 28.60% | 14.87% |
| Maverick McNealy | $7,600 | 8:52 AM | 77.0 | 52.66% | 24.83% | 14.16% |
| Rickie Fowler | $7,400 | 1:30 PM | 78.0 | 57.79% | 30.87% | 11.62% |
| Harris English | $7,500 | 9:16 AM | 78.0 | 55.58% | 28.93% | 11.30% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $7,500 | 1:06 PM | 75.0 | 50.98% | 24.87% | 10.48% |
Cameron Young ($8,100 | PM | 21.75% Own) is the highest-owned mid-range play with a 49.80% 10X and 21.28% 12X. His 1:54 PM tee time is a mild headwind, but his power game suits TPC Sawgrass’s par-5s and his 80.0 projected points match higher-priced players. He’ll be in a significant portion of lineups , but his ceiling justifies it.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,200 | AM | 18.64% Own) delivers a 41.53% 10X and 15.52% 12X with the 8:28 AM tee time , the ideal combination of morning conditions and reasonable ownership. At $8,200 he’s accessible in most salary structures, and his precision-first game is a natural fit for Sawgrass’s demands.
Rickie Fowler ($7,400 | PM | 11.62% Own) leads the tier in 12X probability at 30.87% , exceptional for a player at this price point. His 57.79% 10X at 11.62% ownership provides real leverage. The 1:30 PM tee time is a concern, but Fowler’s history at TPC Sawgrass (2015 champion) and his strong form this season (T-9 at the API last week) make him one of the most compelling mid-range options on the slate.
Harris English ($7,500 | AM | 11.30% Own) offers a 55.58% 10X at under 12% ownership with a 9:16 AM tee time. He hasn’t finished outside the top 28 in any of his six starts in 2026. Consistent, efficient, and underowned , a strong cash and GPP play.
Min Woo Lee ($7,500 | PM | 14.87% Own) nearly matches English’s ceiling at 55.26% 10X and 28.60% 12X. His 1:54 PM tee time is a mild negative, but his outstanding 2026 form (runner-up at Pebble Beach, T-12 at Riviera) makes him a reasonable PM pivot.
The Value Tier: $6,700,$7,400
The value tier at TPC Sawgrass carries meaningful cut risk for several players, dropping to 57.6% or even 46.7% cut probabilities. Target the players who maintain 75% cut probability at this price range , they represent the true value on the slate.
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Cut% | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Koepka | $7,800 | 8:28 AM | 75.0% | 77.0 | 49.56% | 22.30% | 14.56% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $7,700 | 8:28 AM | 75.0% | 77.0 | 50.84% | 23.26% | 14.56% |
| Jake Knapp | $7,600 | 9:16 AM | 75.0% | 76.0 | 51.60% | 23.70% | 12.01% |
| Daniel Berger | $7,100 | 7:52 AM | 75.0% | 77.0 | 62.06% | 34.60% | 15.28% |
| Ryan Gerard | $7,400 | 8:28 AM | 57.6% | 74.0 | 50.06% | 23.97% | 9.57% |
| M. Thorbjornsen | $7,400 | 7:52 AM | 57.6% | 72.0 | 46.66% | 21.13% | 4.82% |
| J.J. Spaun | $7,400 | 1:18 PM | 57.6% | 72.0 | 47.93% | 22.16% | 9.30% |
Daniel Berger ($7,100 | AM | 15.28% Own) is the standout value play of the entire slate. His 62.06% 10X and 34.60% 12X lead all players at 75% cut probability, and his 77.0 projected points match players priced $600,$800 higher. The 7:52 AM tee time gives him the earliest morning conditions in the field. He just finished T-2 at the Arnold Palmer in a playoff against Bhatia, proving his game is in peak form. At $7,100 with elite ceiling rates, Berger is a must-consider for both cash and GPP formats.
Akshay Bhatia ($7,700 | AM | 14.56% Own) arrives as last week’s Arnold Palmer champion , the hottest player in the field. His 50.84% 10X and 23.26% 12X at 75% cut probability make him an ideal value anchor. The 8:28 AM tee time pairs with his aggressive game plan. Tournament winners typically bring strong momentum to the Players, and Bhatia has plenty of it.
Jake Knapp ($7,600 | AM | 12.01% Own) carries a 51.60% 10X at 75% cut probability with a 9:16 AM tee time. His power-based game suits the par-5 scoring opportunities at Sawgrass. Solid across cash and GPP formats with ownership that provides mild leverage.
Brooks Koepka ($7,800 | AM | 14.56% Own) is making his first Players Championship appearance since 2022, returning under the Tour’s Returning Member Program. His 49.56% 10X at 75% cut probability is strong. The five-time major champion offers the kind of ceiling that changes a tournament. He’s priced as a value play despite a major pedigree , the market may be discounting his return.
J.J. Spaun ($7,400 | PM | 9.30% Own) lost to McIlroy in a playoff at the 2025 Players Championship , he knows how to compete on this stage. His 47.93% 10X at 9.30% ownership is compelling. The 1:18 PM tee time introduces conditions variance, but his proven TPC Sawgrass performance partially offsets that concern.
AM Wave Leverage Plays: Low-Owned, High-Ceiling
For GPP builders, several sub-10% ownership players combine morning tee times with exceptional simulation ceilings. These are the differentiating plays that win tournaments.
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Castillo | $6,200 | 8:28 AM | 68.0 | 61.68% | 37.07% | 0.77% |
| Matthew McCarty | $6,700 | 8:40 AM | 70.0 | 55.91% | 30.03% | 0.79% |
| Pierceson Coody | $6,700 | 12:54 PM | 69.0 | 54.79% | 28.80% | ???*% |
| Harry Hall | $6,900 | 1:06 PM | 71.0 | 55.52% | 29.54% | 0.94% |
| Mac Meissner | $6,600 | 7:40 AM | 66.0 | 50.32% | 24.85% | 0.68% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $6,500 | 8:04 AM | 66.0 | 52.33% | 28.16% | 0.66% |
| Sungjae Im | $6,400 | 9:16 AM | 65.0 | 52.86% | 28.84% | 0.66% |
Ricky Castillo ($6,200 | AM | 0.77% Own) is the most extreme leverage play on the entire slate. His 61.68% 10X and 37.07% 12X are extraordinary for a player at this salary , comparable to mid-range plays priced $500,$1,000 higher. His 8:28 AM tee time gives him prime morning conditions, and his 57.6% cut probability is a manageable risk in GPPs. Under 1% ownership means he’s a near-unique differentiator in large-field tournaments.
Matthew McCarty ($6,700 | AM | 0.79% Own) posts a 55.91% 10X and 30.03% 12X at a salary that leaves enormous budget flexibility elsewhere. His 8:40 AM tee time and near-zero ownership make him the ideal GPP value anchor.
Mac Meissner ($6,600 | AM | 0.68% Own) offers a 50.32% 10X at the 7:40 AM tee time , the earliest available slot, providing the best scoring conditions of the day. At 0.68% ownership in large GPP fields, he functions as a true differentiator.
Harry Hall ($6,900 | PM | 0.94% Own) carries a 55.52% 10X and 29.54% 12X , among the highest 12X rates in this price range. His 1:06 PM tee time is a mild headwind, but at under 1% ownership with a 57.6% cut probability, he’s the premium PM deep value option on the slate.
Pierceson Coody ($6,700 | PM | ???% Own) carries a 54.79% 10X and 28.80% 12X , His is not a good play per my metrics, but he is historically a high owned player. He is not in a sweet spot for ownership so we leave him with questions regarding his ownership.
PM Wave Caution: Low-Owned with Conditions Variance
Low-owned PM wave players carry slightly elevated variance this week. The combination of afternoon conditions on a course with water on virtually every hole means these players face mild scoring headwinds alongside low ownership floors. They remain viable GPP options, but limit exposure and avoid building lineups anchored around multiple low-owned PM players.
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bridgeman | $7,900 | 1:06 PM | 73.0 | 40.59% | 16.13% | 16.36% |
| Jordan Spieth | $7,700 | 1:30 PM | 72.0 | 41.32% | 16.39% | 10.00% |
| Sepp Straka | $7,600 | 1:18 PM | 75.0 | 48.29% | 21.03% | 11.20% |
| Shane Lowry | $8,600 | 1:18 PM | 74.0 | 29.76% | 8.31% | 7.87% |
| Sam Burns | $8,400 | 1:54 PM | 71.0 | 28.41% | 8.25% | 7.61% |
Jordan Spieth ($7,700 | PM | 10.00% Own) posted back-to-back T-4 finishes at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 2023. His proven course fit partially offsets the 1:30 PM tee time concern. At exactly 10% ownership with a 41.32% 10X rate, he’s the most appealing PM value option , use selectively in GPP formats.
Sepp Straka ($7,600 | PM | 11.20% Own) delivers a 48.29% 10X and 21.03% 12X , strong ceiling for a mid-range play. His 1:18 PM tee time and 57.6% cut probability are the risks. Best in GPP lineups with an AM-heavy core surrounding him.
Ownership Projections: Finding Leverage
Our ownership algorithm projects Scottie Scheffler as the clear leader at 26.62%, over seven points above Rory McIlroy at 19.01%. The next tier: Cameron Young (21.75%), Si Woo Kim (17.57%), Ben Griffin (17.13%), Collin Morikawa (16.94%), Russell Henley (16.78%), Tommy Fleetwood (15.84%), and Ludvig Aberg (15.27%).
A notable pattern: Cameron Young is the most-owned player outside Scheffler and McIlroy despite a PM tee time, reflecting his strong 2026 form and accessible salary. This creates a structural opportunity , similarly-profiled AM players like Patrick Cantlay (18.64%) and Maverick McNealy (14.16%) offer comparable or better ceiling profiles with morning conditions at similar ownership levels.
The purest leverage lives in the sub-5% AM tier: Ricky Castillo (0.77%), Matthew McCarty (0.79%), Mac Meissner (0.68%), Sungjae Im (0.66%), and Kristoffer Reitan (0.66%) all carry 50%+ 10X probabilities with morning tee times and minimal public backing.
Building Your Lineups: Practical Takeaways
Cash Games and 50/50s: Anchor with Scheffler ($14,200) or Morikawa ($9,800), add morning-wave core from the $8,200,$9,300 range (Cantlay, Henley, Si Woo Kim, Aberg), and fill with AM value plays (Daniel Berger, Bhatia, Jake Knapp). PM players like Matsuyama, Fitzpatrick, and Young are acceptable in cash but limit to 1,2 per lineup. Cut probability is your most important metric in this range , prioritize players at 75% and above.
GPP Tournaments: Use AM low-owned leverage as the differentiator. Start with Daniel Berger ($7,100) or Ricky Castillo ($6,200) as the salary-saving AM anchor. Add underowned premium plays like Matsuyama ($9,500 | 7.45%) or Fitzpatrick ($8,900 | 10.06%). If including PM players, limit to one and favor high-ceiling options like Rickie Fowler ($7,400 | 11.62%) or J.J. Spaun ($7,400 | 9.30%). Avoid stacking multiple low-owned PM players.
The key principle for TPC Sawgrass: precision beats power. The course has water adjacent to every hole but one, and Dye’s greens reward committed approach play while punishing anything offline. Players who manage the course , accepting bogeys on unwinnable holes, attacking when the yardages set up , accumulate points steadily while the field scrambles out of hazards. Prioritize iron precision metrics, course history, and , as a tiebreaker , AM wave placement.
DFS Lineups , Lineups are available for download. Use the filters to determine how many players you want from AM or PM tee time wave, select players you want to key in your lineup, and filter out any ownership bands you want to fade.
