DFS Dashboard provides actual probability information so users can make pragmatic decisions for DFS lineups and sports betting. We continue to perfect AI lineup calculations.

High-Stakes Playoff Challenge – FFPC

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We feed our sportsbook based projections and probabilities into multiple AI platforms and ran hundreds of thousands of simulations.

These are complex calculations that can only be performed by sophisticated computers systems. We have calculated multiple optimized lineups for the FFPC Playoff Challenge contest.

I have provided a spreadsheet of 100 lineups, and the points each lineup can achieve based on a probability band.

For example if lineup #2 has SIM P50, that means 50% of the time that lineup will score at least 340.44 PTS, that same lineup has a SIM P_95 score of 453.00, which means that 5% of the time, that lineup will score at least 453.00 PTS.

There are a few important points regarding these projections/rankings;

1. These total points do not represent actual points, they are “relative” points and should be used to evaluate one lineup vs. another lineup.
2. The lineups should not be used as “plug and play” lineups. Fantasy sports projections have enormous standard deviations, but these deviations only take place over a small group of players. You should find a lineup build you like and replace one or two players with players from the same team that have a slightly lower probability. Do not replace a player from your selected lineup with a HIGH RISK player. they just do not payoff.
3. Do not sort on highest upside and play that lineup. Just because one lineup’s projection number is higher than another lineup’s projection number, that does not mean that lineup will win. Slight underdogs win in sports all the time. Remember, if Team 1 has a 55% chance to win and Team 2 has a 45% chance to win, do not assume Team 1 will win every time, it is 55%!
4. Playoff contest results are dependent on the results multiple NFL games played over multiple weeks. If you are really good at picking NFL games with great precision, you should be playing Sportsbook parlays not fantasy football.

Based on the money line of every game in the playoffs, here is a list of the probabilities that each team will play multiple games:

Please see attached file for Player simulation report. Based on hundreds of thousands of simulations, we have calculated the probability band of each player’s points based on probability, 50%, 20%, 10%, 5% and 1%. We also calculated the probability that each player will be the highest scoring player for the entire playoffs, the probability the player will be the highest scoring player at his position and the probability the player will be the highest scoring player on his team.

Now, please review 100 baseline lineups for the FFPC contest.