Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, HI • USA
DFS Dashboard provides actual probability information so users can make pragmatic decisions for DFS lineups and sports betting.
We have started the process to teach AI how to use sportsbook information to create golfer simulations for the upcoming Sony Open.
We segregated golfers into two groups, Group 1 consist of golfers with a salary 8400+, and Group 2 consists of golfers with a salary or <8400 and a greater than 50% probability to get 50 points.
Among Group 1 players ($8,400+), Keegan Bradley ($9,300) and Si Woo Kim ($9,400) lead the field with the highest 10X value probabilities at 16.79% and 16.61% respectively, making them the optimal anchor plays for tournament lineups. These mid-tier premiums offer better value efficiency than the chalk plays at the top of the salary structure, while still delivering elite ceiling potential with 99th percentile outcomes of 117.5 points. Russell Henley ($10,300) and Ben Griffin ($10,100) project for the highest median scores at 67.85 points, but their elevated salaries result in lower value multiplier probabilities, making them better suited for cash games than GPPs.
In Group 2 ($8,300 and below with P50 > 50), Taylor Pendrith ($7,600) stands out as the top value play with an impressive 18.53% chance of hitting 10X value, followed closely by Matthew McCarty ($7,500) at 17.25% and Kristoffer Reitan ($7,600) at 16.88%. These players provide the salary relief needed to roster premium Group 1 options while maintaining significant upside. Aaron Rai ($8,200) offers an intriguing bridge option near the top of Group 2, combining strong 10X probability (11.79%) with the same ceiling as the field’s elite players at 117.5 points.
Golf DFS lineups are much more efficient to run since we only have 6 roster spots. We ran 2,925 lineups, using every possible 3-player combination from group 2 and a diversified selection of group 1 players.
We then ran 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on each lineup to determine the probability of each lineup achieving a certain score range.
AI created a crazy big excel file with multiple tabs of great information, I have attached the file for anyone who wants to consume many data points.
If you simply want a lineup to play, I recommend using the “Top Lineups” file and filter on the player you think will win in Column A and look for players you like in the other columns. I would pay particular attention to the AM_Count column and the PM_Count column.
If you want to build your own lineups, I recommend using the Group 1 (Premium) tab to select 2-3 players and then use the Group 2 (Value) tab to finish your lineups.
