Last week our 20 plays hit 4x at a 30% rate, well above the slate average, and our fades went 6 for 10. We’re running it back for Week 2, and below you’ll get the top play and top fade at every position. The full list of 20 plays and 10 fades is waiting for members.
Here’s how the lists work:
- Plays are the players with the highest probability of reaching 4x value, meaning 4 fantasy points for every $1,000 of salary. Every list includes upper-tier options, so you can build around a stud without leaving the pool.
- Fades are the players, owned at or above the median for their position, with the lowest probability of reaching even 2x value. These are the crowded spots most likely to sink a lineup.
Quarterbacks
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF vs MIA | $6,200 | 22.00 | 37.8% | 6.9% | 24.8 |
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Brock Purdy is the best value at quarterback, returning 3.55 points per $1K. His 238.5-yard passing line comes with a -196 price to throw two or more touchdowns against Miami.
Members get three more quarterbacks, all projected at 3.4% ownership or lower, including the one with the best 5x probability at the position.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs HOU | $6,600 | 18.46 | 74.5% | 5.5% | 13.2 |
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Joe Burrow has a big 250.5-yard passing line but no rushing projection to lift his floor, and he costs $400 more than Purdy while projecting 3.5 fewer points.
Our second fade is another popular quarterback whose passing line doesn’t support his price.
Running Backs
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN vs CHI | $5,100 | 16.65 | 32.0% | 8.4% | 20.4 |
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Aaron Jones Sr. is the easiest click on the slate. His 32.0% chance at 4x is far ahead of every other running back, he returns 3.26 points per $1K, and he’s -200 to score against Chicago.
The locked list includes two more value backs, a mid-priced back with a 72.5-yard rushing line, and two upper-tier studs, one of them the highest-projected player on the entire slate.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift | CHI vs MIN | $6,300 | 13.92 | 57.0% | 7.6% | 12.6 |
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D’Andre Swift costs $1,200 more than Jones and projects for nearly 3 fewer points, with just 1.5 receptions in his projection.
Our second running back fade has less than a 5% chance at 4x despite a price tag that suggests otherwise.
Wide Receivers
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs GB | $6,000 | 14.26 | 14.0% | 16.0% | 24.0 |
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Garrett Wilson is tied for the most popular player on the slate at 16.0%, and the numbers back it up. He has the best 4x probability of any wide receiver, with a 63.5-yard receiving line against Green Bay.
Five more receivers are on the full list, including the top-projected wide receiver on the slate and a sub-$5,000 value play.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | JAX vs DEN | $5,900 | 11.56 | 48.6% | 13.2% | 11.8 |
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Parker Washington is projected at 13.2% owned but is less likely than not to reach even 2x. At $5,900, he projects for fewer points than several cheaper receivers on our list.
Our second fade is another receiver projected over 13% owned who is roughly a coin flip to reach 2x.
Tight Ends
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | HOU vs CIN | $3,200 | 10.62 | 37.8% | 5.2% | 12.8 |
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This is where the slate breaks open. Dalton Schultz has the highest 5x probability of any player on the slate at 22.1%, and he’s projected at just 5.2% owned.
Our other tight end play ranks second on the entire slate in 5x probability, projects within 2.5 points of the top tight end for $2,500 less, and comes in under 5% owned.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | PHI vs TEN | $4,800 | 10.68 | 56.1% | 9.2% | 9.6 |
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Dallas Goedert projects for about the same as Schultz but costs $1,600 more and will be owned at nearly twice the rate.
Our second tight end fade is a high-priced option who needs nearly 14 points just to reach 2x.
Defenses
Plays
| Team | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | CAR vs ATL | $2,700 | 7.28 | 28.4% | 4.5% | 10.8 |
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The Panthers have the best 4x probability of any defense, and their 15.6% chance at 5x ranks third among all players on the slate.
Our second defense is an upper-tier unit that projects for the same 7.28 points.
Fades
| Team | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | SF vs MIA | $3,800 | 7.48 | 49.2% | 4.5% | 7.6 |
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The 49ers are the most expensive defense on the slate, project for just 0.2 points more than the Panthers at $1,100 more, and are less likely than not to reach 2x.
Our second fade is another premium-priced defense in the same spot.
How We’ll Grade This
A play hits when it reaches its 4x target. A fade is a win when the player misses his 2x target. Our projections expect about 4 or 5 of the 20 plays to hit 4x and about 4 of the 10 fades to miss 2x. Last week we beat both marks, and we’ll post the full Week 2 results next week either way.
Unlock All Players
You’ve seen 10 of our key picks. Members get:
- The complete list of players, with salaries, projections, and ownership
- Projections for every player on the slate, with 2x through 5x probabilities
- Projected ownership for every player
- Full weekly results tracking, so you can see exactly how the model performs
Last week, members who played our cheap quarterback calls had Bryce Young at 6.8x value and 3.2% ownership. Don’t miss this week’s version.
Join DFS Dashboard at https://data.dfsdashboard.com/sign-up and get the full Week 2 slate before lock.
