Last week we published 20 plays and 10 fades for the Week 1 main slate and promised to grade every one of them in public. We also set the bar ahead of time: in a sport this volatile, our projections expected about 4 of the 20 plays to hit 4x value and about 4 of the 10 fades to miss 2x.
Here’s how it went.
The Scorecard
| Category | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Plays that hit 4x | About 4 of 20 | 6 of 20 |
| Fades that missed 2x | About 4 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
We beat both marks. For context, only about 22% of players owned at 1% or more reached 4x on this slate. Our plays hit at 30%.
The Hits
| Player | Pos | Salary | 4x Target | Actual | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | QB | $5,200 | 20.8 | 35.44 | 6.8x |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | $8,000 | 32.0 | 37.60 | 4.7x |
| Chris Olave | WR | $6,700 | 26.8 | 31.20 | 4.7x |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | $5,800 | 23.2 | 26.10 | 4.5x |
| Las Vegas Raiders | DST | $2,900 | 11.6 | 13.00 | 4.5x |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | $5,500 | 22.0 | 23.70 | 4.3x |
Bryce Young was the best value on the slate among players owned at 1% or more. At 3.2% projected ownership, his 35.44 points gave anyone who clicked him a real edge on the field.
The cheap quarterback call worked. Young and Lawrence were both projected under 3.5% owned, and both cleared 4x.
Jahmyr Gibbs paid off his top salary. Our highest-priced play scored 37.6 points, the third-highest total on the slate.
The Raiders defense delivered at $2,900. It was our top defensive play, projected at just 4.2% owned.
The Plays That Missed
| Player | Pos | Salary | 4x Target | Actual | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | $7,500 | 30.0 | 28.70 | 3.8x |
| Michael Mayer | TE | $2,900 | 11.6 | 9.20 | 3.2x |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | $5,900 | 23.6 | 14.80 | 2.5x |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | $5,800 | 23.2 | 13.90 | 2.4x |
| Justin Herbert | QB | $6,100 | 24.4 | 14.26 | 2.3x |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | $5,400 | 21.6 | 11.30 | 2.1x |
| Luther Burden III | WR | $5,500 | 22.0 | 10.50 | 1.9x |
| De’Von Achane | RB | $7,000 | 28.0 | 10.60 | 1.5x |
| Tre Tucker | WR | $4,000 | 16.0 | 4.70 | 1.2x |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | $4,800 | 19.2 | 3.70 | 0.8x |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | $7,800 | 31.2 | 3.20 | 0.4x |
| Kyler Murray | QB | $5,500 | 22.0 | 0.62 | 0.1x |
| Colston Loveland | TE | $5,300 | 21.2 | 0.00 | 0.0x |
| Tennessee Titans | DST | $3,100 | 12.4 | 0.00 | 0.0x |
Two came close. Amon-Ra St. Brown finished just 1.3 points shy of 4x, and Michael Mayer still returned better than 3x at $2,900.
The biggest misses hurt. Ja’Marr Chase, the most popular player on the slate, scored 3.2 points. Kyler Murray, Colston Loveland, and the Titans defense combined for less than a point.
Wide receiver was our weakest position. Only Olave hit, out of six plays.
The Fades That Worked
| Player | Pos | Salary | 2x Target | Actual | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | $4,700 | 9.4 | 0.00 | 0.0x |
| Los Angeles Chargers | DST | $3,500 | 7.0 | 1.00 | 0.3x |
| Drake London | WR | $6,500 | 13.0 | 5.50 | 0.8x |
| James Cook III | RB | $7,200 | 14.4 | 9.90 | 1.4x |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | $6,200 | 12.4 | 11.30 | 1.8x |
| Buffalo Bills | DST | $3,100 | 6.2 | 6.00 | 1.9x |
Drake London was the best fade. He was projected at 15.1% owned and scored 5.5 points. Anyone who faded him gained ground on a big chunk of the field.
Our wide receiver and defense fades went a perfect 4 for 4. Kyle Pitts Sr. and the Chargers defense barely registered, and James Cook III managed under 10 points at $7,200.
The Fades That Burned Us
| Player | Pos | Salary | 2x Target | Actual | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | RB | $6,700 | 13.4 | 38.30 | 5.7x |
| Josh Allen | QB | $7,000 | 14.0 | 38.66 | 5.5x |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | $4,600 | 9.2 | 21.00 | 4.6x |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | $6,500 | 13.0 | 17.66 | 2.7x |
There’s no hiding this one: Josh Allen and Derrick Henry were the two highest scorers on the entire slate. Allen was also the fade we were least confident in, since the projections gave him a 79.7% chance to reach 2x going in. Dalton Kincaid also cleared 4x.
What We Took Away
Cheap quarterbacks with upside were the story of the week. Two of our three sub-$6,000 quarterbacks hit 4x, and both were projected under 3.5% owned.
Fading elite players is risky even when the numbers support it. Our fades at wide receiver, tight end, and defense went 5 for 6. Our fades of high-ceiling players like Allen and Henry went 0 for 2, and it cost us.
Volume matters. Seven of our 20 plays scored under 5 points. A single lineup built around Chase, Murray, or Loveland had a rough day, but the full pool still beat expectations. That’s exactly why we publish a pool instead of one lineup.
We’ll keep grading ourselves every week, in public.
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- Projections for every player on the slate, with 2x through 5x probabilities
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