Twelve games, 24 teams, and a lot of variance. Week 1 is the hardest slate of the year to predict, so instead of betting everything on a single lineup, we’re giving you a pool of players with the best chance to smash, plus the popular names most likely to let you down.
Here’s how the lists work:
- Plays are the players with the highest probability of reaching 4x value, meaning 4 fantasy points for every $1,000 of salary. Every list includes upper-tier options, so you can build around a stud without leaving the pool.
- Fades are the players, owned at or above the median for their position, with the lowest probability of reaching even 2x value. These are the crowded spots most likely to sink a lineup.
We’ll grade every pick next week, the good and the bad.
Quarterbacks
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC vs ARI | $6,100 | 22.48 | 41.6% | 8.3% | 24.4 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN vs GB | $5,500 | 19.72 | 40.0% | 3.5% | 22.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs CLE | $5,800 | 20.21 | 37.0% | 3.3% | 23.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR vs CHI | $5,200 | 17.09 | 32.1% | 3.2% | 20.8 |
Justin Herbert is the top quarterback on the slate in both projection and value, returning 3.69 points per $1K. The books have him at -202 to throw two or more touchdowns against Arizona, and his 234.5-yard passing line comes with a 22.5-yard rushing bonus.
Kyler Murray is the best tournament play at the position. His 19.4% chance at 5x is the highest of any quarterback, and he’s projected at only 3.5% owned. Trevor Lawrence (236.5 passing yards, -103 for two touchdowns) and Bryce Young round out a group of three cheap passers who should each come in under 3.5% ownership.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | WAS vs PHI | $6,500 | 17.57 | 71.6% | 6.1% | 13.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF vs HOU | $7,000 | 21.48 | 79.7% | 6.9% | 14.0 |
Jayden Daniels has the lowest 2x probability of any popular quarterback. His passing line sits at just 200.5 yards, and he’s +225 to throw multiple touchdowns. Josh Allen projects well, but at $7,000 he’s the most expensive quarterback on our board and only +153 to throw two scores. Herbert and Murray offer more upside for less money.
Running Backs
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB vs MIN | $4,800 | 12.10 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 19.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs ATL | $5,400 | 13.72 | 14.7% | 7.3% | 21.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR vs CHI | $5,500 | 13.72 | 13.5% | 7.2% | 22.0 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA vs LV | $7,000 | 18.40 | 12.9% | 9.3% | 28.0 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | NO vs DET | $5,900 | 14.92 | 12.4% | 7.3% | 23.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NO | $8,000 | 21.92 | 11.8% | 9.6% | 32.0 |
MarShawn Lloyd has the best 4x probability of any running back and is the cheapest back on this list. Jaylen Warren adds 19.5 receiving yards to his rushing line, which gives him a PPR floor at $5,400.
At the top, Jahmyr Gibbs is the highest-projected running back on the slate. His props (85.5 rushing yards, 30.5 receiving yards) point to an every-down role, and his -325 anytime touchdown price is the shortest on the board. De’Von Achane offers a similar dual-threat profile for $1,000 less, with 68.5 rushing and 30.5 receiving yards.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | BUF vs HOU | $7,200 | 15.36 | 55.1% | 7.5% | 14.4 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs IND | $6,700 | 15.29 | 60.0% | 8.0% | 13.4 |
James Cook III costs $7,200 but projects for fewer points than Etienne, who is $1,300 cheaper. His chance at 4x is just 3.7%. Derrick Henry carries a 78.5-yard rushing line, but his projection includes only 1.5 receptions, so he needs a touchdown to pay off his price.
Wide Receivers
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | LV vs MIA | $4,000 | 10.35 | 21.0% | 16.2% | 16.0 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN vs TB | $7,800 | 21.13 | 16.9% | 19.4% | 31.2 |
| Luther Burden III | CHI vs CAR | $5,500 | 13.09 | 16.1% | 14.8% | 22.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NO | $7,500 | 19.32 | 15.5% | 18.5% | 30.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs TEN | $5,800 | 13.92 | 15.1% | 15.0% | 23.2 |
| Chris Olave | NO vs DET | $6,700 | 15.84 | 13.7% | 16.9% | 26.8 |
Tre Tucker has the best 4x probability of any wide receiver, and at $4,000 he only needs 16 points to get there. He’s popular for a reason.
Ja’Marr Chase is the top receiver on the slate, with props of 86.5 yards on 7.5 catches and -121 to score. Amon-Ra St. Brown (78.5 yards, 6.5 catches, -115) is right behind him. Both will be heavily owned, but they’re the safest way to spend up at the position. Luther Burden III is the mid-range upside play, with the second-best 5x probability in this group.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | TB vs CIN | $6,200 | 13.00 | 52.7% | 15.0% | 12.4 |
| Drake London | ATL vs PIT | $6,500 | 13.73 | 53.2% | 15.1% | 13.0 |
Both of these receivers are priced above $6,000 and projected around 15% owned, yet each is close to a coin flip to reach even 2x. Drake London is +220 to score. Emeka Egbuka projects for fewer points than Wilson and Burden, who are both cheaper.
Tight Ends
Plays
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | LV vs MIA | $2,900 | 9.56 | 36.4% | 7.3% | 11.6 |
| Colston Loveland | CHI vs CAR | $5,300 | 13.94 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 21.2 |
Michael Mayer may be the best value on the entire slate. His 36.4% chance at 4x leads all tight ends, and his 19.3% chance at 5x is the highest of any non-quarterback. Colston Loveland is the upper-tier option, with a 55.5-yard receiving line and the second-highest projection at the position.
Fades
| Player | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF vs HOU | $4,600 | 9.93 | 54.2% | 9.2% | 9.2 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL vs PIT | $4,700 | 10.50 | 56.2% | 9.5% | 9.4 |
Both cost over $4,500, will be owned near 9.5%, and project for barely more than Mayer at $1,700 less. Kyle Pitts Sr. is +310 to score, and Dalton Kincaid is projected for just 3.5 catches.
Defenses
Plays
| Team | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 4x% | Own% | 4x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | LV vs MIA | $2,900 | 7.12 | 23.3% | 4.2% | 11.6 |
| Tennessee Titans | TEN vs NYJ | $3,100 | 7.20 | 19.9% | 6.0% | 12.4 |
The Raiders have the best 4x probability of any defense and are projected at just 4.2% owned. They also pair naturally with Mayer and Tucker in a Raiders stack. The Titans are the upper-tier choice against the Jets.
Fades
| Team | Matchup | Salary | Proj | 2x% | Own% | 2x Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | BUF vs HOU | $3,100 | 6.42 | 51.7% | 5.4% | 6.2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | LAC vs ARI | $3,500 | 7.48 | 53.0% | 5.5% | 7.0 |
The Bills cost the same as the Titans but project for nearly a point less. The Chargers are tied for the top projection among defenses, but at $3,500 they need 7 points just to reach 2x, and they’re barely better than a coin flip to get there.
How We’ll Grade This
A play hits when it reaches its 4x target. A fade is a win when the player misses his 2x target.
We’re setting the bar in public. In a high-variance sport, even the best projections expect only about 4 of these 20 plays to hit 4x. Our fades are the least likely popular players to reach 2x, but most of them are still better than even money, so the model expects about 4 of the 10 to miss. Anything above those marks is a winning week, and we’ll show you the full results next week either way.
Get the Full Picture
This article covers 30 players. Members get:
- Projections for every player on the slate, with 2x through 5x probabilities
- Projected ownership for every player
- Our optimal lineups and the stacks we’re building around
- Weekly results tracking, so you can see exactly how the model performs
Join DFS Dashboard today at https://data.dfsdashboard.com/sign-up and get the full slate before lock.
