One game, six roster spots, and one decision that matters more than the rest. Showdown lineups are a captain plus five flex players from either team, all under the same $50,000 cap.
The captain rule drives everything. Your captain costs 1.5 times his normal salary and scores 1.5 times his points. The value ratio stays the same either way, so paying up isn’t automatically wrong. What you’re really buying is a bigger share of one player’s night, which is why captain ownership matters as much as the projection.
The Captain Room
| Player | Team | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | Top Scorer% | CPT Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | $17,100 | 37.29 | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | $18,000 | 33.74 | 55.2% | 17.5% |
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Josh Allen is our captain. He has the highest projection in the game at 24.86 points and, remarkably, the best value too at 2.18 points per $1,000. Players this expensive usually cost you value. Allen doesn’t.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the scariest name on the board. Our model gives him a 55.2% chance to be the highest scorer in this game, by far the best mark of anyone. He also costs $900 more than Allen at captain. If you want the single most likely game-winning outcome, that’s him, and roughly 17.5% of the field will agree.
The leverage play is locked. One of our other captain options costs under $10,500, projects within 1.4 points of our optimal build when you captain him, and is projected at 2.3% captain ownership instead of Allen’s 19.3%. He has no realistic shot at leading the game in scoring, which is exactly why nobody will have him, and the captain spot pays 1.5x regardless of who wins the game. Members get the name.
The Flex Board
After your captain, you have five flex spots to fill. We built each one as a price tier, with three options at similar salaries so you can swap between them without breaking your build. Position doesn’t matter here, price does. Each tier is ranked by the odds of returning 2x value, meaning 2 points for every $1,000 of salary. The top option in every tier is free.
Flex 1: The $9,400 to $10,400 Tier
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | 2x% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | $10,400 | 20.23 | 47.8% |
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This is your second premium piece after the captain. St. Brown leads the tier at 1.95 points per $1,000, which is remarkable for the most expensive receiver in the game. The other two options here are a running back and a quarterback in the same price range, and both clear a 42% shot at 2x.
Flex 2: The $6,400 to $7,800 Tier
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | 2x% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | $6,800 | 13.73 | 50.5% |
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The best value tier on the slate. Kincaid returns 2.02 points per $1,000 and has a 25.2% chance at 3x, the highest of any pass catcher in this game. The two locked names are receivers who cost about the same and both clear 39% at 2x.
Flex 3: The $4,800 to $5,400 Tier
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | 2x% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | $5,400 | 11.16 | 52.6% |
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LaPorta leads the entire game in points per $1,000 at 2.07 and has the best 2x odds of any player on the slate. The other two options in this tier project for identical points at slightly lower prices, and all three are better than a coin flip to hit 2x.
Flex 4: The $3,200 to $3,800 Tier
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | 2x% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills D/ST | DST | BUF | $3,600 | 7.12 | 49.4% |
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The Bills defense has a 27.5% chance at 3x, the best of anyone in the game under $4,000, and it makes the rest of your lineup affordable. Our other two options in this tier are much lower projected and belong in tournament builds only.
Flex 5: The Under $3,000 Tier
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | 2x% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | $2,800 | 4.48 | 40.3% |
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Your punt spot. Knox needs just 5.6 points to hit 2x and carries a 20.6% chance at 3x at under 10% ownership. The two locked names are even cheaper, and one of them has better 3x odds than Knox does.
The Free Build
| Slot | Player | Team | Salary | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Josh Allen | BUF | $17,100 | 37.29 |
| FLEX | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | $10,400 | 20.23 |
| FLEX | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | $6,800 | 13.73 |
| FLEX | Sam LaPorta | DET | $5,400 | 11.16 |
| FLEX | Buffalo Bills D/ST | BUF | $3,600 | 7.12 |
| FLEX | Dawson Knox | BUF | $2,800 | 4.48 |
| Total | $46,100 | 94.01 |
Take the free option in every tier and you get this lineup for $46,100, which leaves $3,900 on the table. That’s deliberate. Spending that money correctly is worth about 7.5 points, and our optimal build projects 101.49. Members see which two tiers to upgrade, plus the two pivot lineups we’re using in tournaments.
The Fades
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | $7,400 | 11.60 | 24.3% |
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Jameson Williams will be on about a quarter of rosters despite projecting for less than Kincaid at $600 more, with only a 32.4% chance at 2x. Two more popular names are on our fade list.
How We’ll Grade This
Flex plays hit when they reach 2x, meaning 2 points for every $1,000 of salary. The captain call is graded on whether he finishes as the top scorer in the game. We post every result, the good and the bad.
Unlock the Full Showdown Card
You’ve seen the top option in every tier. Members get:
- All three options in each flex tier, with salaries, projections, and ownership
- Our full captain board, including the leverage play at 2.3% ownership
- The optimal build and two tournament pivots
- Projections for every player in the game, with value odds from 1x through 3x and top-scorer probabilities
Join DFS Dashboard at https://data.dfsdashboard.com/sign-up and get the full card before kickoff.
