How Our Numbers Work
No bias. No hot takes. No gimmicks. No get rich quick schemes. No overpromises. Just probabilities built from the sharpest data in the market.
We start with sportsbook data
Every projection begins with real-time sportsbook player prop odds, the most efficient and liquid market for predicting player performance. Instead of opinions, we start from the same numbers the books use to set their lines.
We simulate the outcomes
We run over 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations for each slate, using statistical models built on those odds. Every simulation plays out a different version of the event, so we see the full range of what could happen, not just a single guess.
We turn results into probabilities
Those simulations become probabilities, not point estimates. You get a player’s actual odds of performance, or hitting a scoring threshold, so you always know the risk behind every number. Every player has a unique probability curve of performance.
We build risk-aware lineups
Our lineup builder weighs player probabilities to build lineups tuned for a higher chance of winning. Not the linear mathematical best lineup on paper, but the one with the strongest probability edge over the field. You set the risk; the math does the rest.
BetMGM · Caesars
Unbiased & data-driven
No personal bias and no guesswork. Projections come straight from market data and simulation.
Risk-based by design
Every number is framed as a probability, so you always know the odds you’re playing.
Always current
Projections refresh every 15 minutes, with round-the-clock player news keeping trends, injuries, and lineups up to date.
Our Data Partners
