DFS Dashboard Analysis – 2026 RBC Heritage

DFS Dashboard Analysis

April 2026 | Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

Signature Event | No Cut | Standard DK Scoring

Event Overview

The 2026 RBC Heritage, the fourth Signature Event of the PGA Tour season, brings an elite field to Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. The $20 million purse awards $3.6 million to the winner along with 700 FedExCup points. For 2026, the Heritage serves as a Tournament of Champions, with the 82-player field composed entirely of 2025 calendar year PGA Tour winners plus additional qualifiers from the FedExCup standings and Aon Next 10. Defending champion Justin Thomas returns after capturing his 16th career PGA Tour title in a playoff last year. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the 2024 Heritage winner, leads the field as the betting favorite, fresh off a runner-up finish at the Masters. The field also includes Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Robert MacIntyre, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, and Sam Burns. DFS Dashboard ran simulations using the two-stage bimodal mixture model to produce the projections and probability distributions analyzed in this article.

No-Cut Format

As a Signature Event, the RBC Heritage operates with no cut – all 82 players in the field will complete all four rounds and earn prize money. This fundamentally changes DFS strategy compared to cut events. There is no risk of a player posting zero weekend points due to a missed cut, which means the floor for every player is guaranteed playing time across 72 holes. This eliminates the need to filter by cut probability and shifts the strategic focus entirely to ceiling, upside, and ownership leverage. Every player in this analysis is eligible for lineup consideration regardless of their model-assigned cut probability. There is also no meaningful advantage to AM or PM tee time waves at Harbour Town, so wave splits are shown for reference only and should not drive lineup decisions.

The Course

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 layout measuring approximately 7,243 yards, designed by Pete Dye with Jack Nicklaus as design consultant. The course opened in 1969 and immediately hosted the inaugural Heritage Classic, won by Arnold Palmer. For 2026, Harbour Town underwent its most significant restoration in its history, led by five-time Heritage champion Davis Love III and his Love Golf Design team. The restoration refined green perimeters and bunkering to return the course closer to its 1969 character, including the reintroduction of 11 stacked-sod bunkers using artificial turf for stability. The course is sculpted from 300 acres of live oaks, pines, and magnolias, with the iconic candy-cane-striped lighthouse framing the 18th hole along Calibogue Sound.

Harbour Town is the ultimate precision test on the PGA Tour. The course features the smallest greens on tour, averaging just 3,700 square feet compared to the tour average of 6,600. Narrow, tree-lined fairways demand accuracy over distance – players are frequently blocked out by overhanging branches even from the fairway. The course places a premium on finesse, imagination, and shot-making rather than strength. Winning scores typically fall in the 15-to-20-under range, but getting there requires patience, elite iron play, and precise distance control with wedges. Coastal wind off Calibogue Sound adds variability, particularly on the two finishing holes along the water. Course history is significant here – players who have mastered Harbour Town’s subtleties, like Davis Love III (five wins), Stewart Cink (three wins), and Matt Fitzpatrick (2023 winner), tend to return to form at this venue.

Anchor Selection: Premium Tier ($8,300+)

Your anchor selections are the highest-leverage picks in DFS lineup construction. In a no-cut Signature Event with an elite field, the premium tier is deep and competitive. Scheffler’s $13,500 salary creates a significant constraint – pairing him with another premium anchor severely limits remaining salary for the four remaining roster spots.

The 10X, 11X, and 12X PTS/$ columns represent the probability that each player returns 10, 11, or 12 times their salary-implied fantasy point value. These multiplier probabilities capture upside beyond raw projected points and are essential for GPP lineup differentiation.

Player Salary Proj Pts 10X Pts/$ 11X Pts/$ 12X Pts/$
Scottie Scheffler $13,500 103.0 8.59% 2.48% 0.56%
Xander Schauffele $10,500 94.0 32.70% 17.37% 8.42%
Tommy Fleetwood $10,100 93.0 37.27% 20.97% 10.56%
Matt Fitzpatrick $10,000 93.0 39.14% 23.47% 12.10%
Cameron Young $9,800 92.0 41.16% 25.14% 13.18%
Russell Henley $9,600 94.0 46.64% 29.91% 16.51%
Ludvig Aberg $9,400 93.0 49.69% 32.58% 19.67%
Collin Morikawa $9,300 91.0 47.16% 30.23% 17.86%
Patrick Cantlay $9,200 90.0 47.38% 30.50% 18.09%
Jake Knapp $9,100 88.0 45.05% 28.15% 16.20%
Sam Burns $9,000 88.0 47.21% 31.81% 18.69%
Si Woo Kim $8,900 90.0 52.28% 36.13% 22.25%
Jordan Spieth $8,800 86.0 47.55% 31.99% 19.22%
Robert MacIntyre $8,700 91.0 58.91% 42.93% 28.07%
Viktor Hovland $8,600 87.0 52.09% 36.10% 22.43%
Maverick McNealy $8,500 88.0 56.12% 40.11% 27.14%
Shane Lowry $8,400 84.0 51.02% 35.05% 22.64%
Justin Thomas $8,300 85.0 53.94% 37.78% 24.82%

High Floor, High Upside: Best Value Targets

With no cut risk in this Signature Event, the floor for value targets is inherently higher than in cut events – every player gets four rounds of scoring opportunity. This makes the 12X PTS/$ column the dominant filter. Players in this salary range who carry high 12X probabilities offer asymmetric upside at a fraction of the anchor cost.

Low-ownership players carry built-in contrarian value in GPP formats. Consider Alex Noren at $7,100 with a 48.30% chance of hitting 12X – that is outsized upside relative to salary cost and ownership of just 3.09%.

Player Salary Proj Pts Own% 10X Pts/$ 11X Pts/$ 12X Pts/$
Alex Noren $7,100 85.0 3.09% 73.99% 60.99% 48.30%
Andrew Putnam $6,400 75.0 3.45% 70.47% 58.19% 46.78%
Sungjae Im $6,700 78.0 4.02% 70.97% 58.90% 45.97%
Brian Harman $7,000 81.0 5.07% 70.22% 58.34% 45.46%
Bud Cauley $6,500 74.0 1.65% 68.10% 55.59% 44.28%
Corey Conners $7,000 80.0 8.16% 68.57% 56.22% 43.39%
Keegan Bradley $6,900 79.0 2.55% 68.63% 56.33% 43.27%
Denny McCarthy $6,500 74.0 2.29% 67.06% 54.30% 42.96%
Pierceson Coody $6,500 73.0 6.68% 66.18% 53.39% 42.03%
Jordan L. Smith $6,500 73.0 2.91% 65.96% 53.18% 41.77%
Michael Kim $6,400 72.0 2.38% 65.70% 52.86% 41.52%
Matt Wallace $6,600 75.0 0.20% 66.80% 54.17% 41.09%
Kurt Kitayama $7,100 80.0 3.64% 67.64% 53.44% 40.63%
Austin Smotherman $6,300 71.0 3.28% 64.95% 51.88% 40.54%
Ryan Fox $6,300 70.0 4.87% 65.00% 51.91% 40.41%

Tier Breakdown: Probability-Based Player Groupings

The tier system groups players by salary into bands where the combined probability of at least one player delivering a 12X return reaches approximately 70%. With 20 tiers available in this deep Signature Event field, there is exceptional flexibility in constructing salary-compliant lineups.

Tier Salary represents the maximum individual salary within each tier. Note: the Wave column is shown for reference only – there is no meaningful AM/PM advantage at this event.

Player Salary 12X Pts/$ Own% Proj Pts Wave Tier Salary
TIER 1 – Tier Salary: $8,700 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 76.4%
Robert MacIntyre $8,700 28.07% 12.44% 91.0 AM $8,700
Viktor Hovland $8,600 22.43% 9.22% 87.0 AM $8,700
Maverick McNealy $8,500 27.14% 14.95% 88.0 PM $8,700
Shane Lowry $8,400 22.64% 10.73% 84.0 PM $8,700
Justin Thomas $8,300 24.82% 8.00% 85.0 AM $8,700
TIER 2 – Tier Salary: $8,200 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 73.6%
Jacob Bridgeman $8,200 25.72% 13.46% 84.0 AM $8,200
Chris Gotterup $8,100 26.85% 14.78% 84.0 AM $8,200
Jason Day $8,000 30.94% 8.01% 85.0 PM $8,200
Sepp Straka $7,900 29.63% 13.10% 83.0 AM $8,200
TIER 3 – Tier Salary: $7,900 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 79.1%
Harris English $7,900 31.70% 9.20% 84.0 AM $7,900
Min Woo Lee $7,800 32.07% 18.66% 83.0 AM $7,900
Ben Griffin $7,800 33.98% 2.69% 84.0 AM $7,900
Akshay Bhatia $7,700 31.62% 11.56% 82.0 PM $7,900
TIER 4 – Tier Salary: $7,700 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 76.5%
Ryo Hisatsune $7,700 25.86% 9.78% 79.0 AM $7,700
Sahith Theegala $7,600 27.52% 13.62% 79.0 AM $7,700
Rickie Fowler $7,600 36.33% 6.91% 84.0 AM $7,700
Nicolai Hojgaard $7,500 31.39% 13.85% 79.0 AM $7,700
TIER 5 – Tier Salary: $7,500 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 75.6%
J.J. Spaun $7,500 39.28% 8.20% 83.0 AM $7,500
Harry Hall $7,400 35.94% 5.77% 81.0 PM $7,500
Ryan Gerard $7,400 37.31% 15.08% 81.0 AM $7,500
TIER 6 – Tier Salary: $7,300 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 78.5%
Daniel Berger $7,300 34.11% 7.82% 79.0 AM $7,300
Michael Thorbjornsen $7,300 35.20% 8.06% 79.0 AM $7,300
Wyndham Clark $7,300 26.50% 6.91% 74.0 PM $7,300
Sudarshan Yellamaraju $7,200 31.47% 5.13% 76.0 PM $7,300
TIER 7 – Tier Salary: $7,200 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 77.7%
Sam Stevens $7,200 39.77% 6.80% 81.0 AM $7,200
J.T. Poston $7,200 37.57% 5.47% 80.0 AM $7,200
Kurt Kitayama $7,100 40.63% 3.64% 80.0 AM $7,200
TIER 8 – Tier Salary: $7,100 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 78.2%
Alex Noren $7,100 48.30% 3.09% 85.0 AM $7,100
Nick Taylor $7,100 38.74% 2.62% 79.0 AM $7,100
Marco Penge $7,000 31.12% 2.53% 73.0 AM $7,100
TIER 9 – Tier Salary: $7,000 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 79.7%
Corey Conners $7,000 43.39% 8.16% 80.0 PM $7,000
Brian Harman $7,000 45.46% 5.07% 81.0 AM $7,000
Max Homa $6,900 34.10% 4.62% 74.0 PM $7,000
TIER 10 – Tier Salary: $6,900 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 75.9%
Keegan Bradley $6,900 43.27% 2.55% 79.0 PM $6,900
Taylor Pendrith $6,900 34.08% 1.53% 74.0 AM $6,900
Gary Woodland $6,800 35.59% 4.65% 74.0 AM $6,900
TIER 11 – Tier Salary: $6,800 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 71.5%
Nicolas Echavarria $6,800 29.33% 4.36% 70.0 PM $6,800
Matthew McCarty $6,800 38.74% 4.95% 75.0 AM $6,800
Ricky Castillo $6,700 34.12% 5.49% 72.0 PM $6,800
TIER 12 – Tier Salary: $6,700 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 80.8%
Sungjae Im $6,700 45.97% 4.02% 78.0 AM $6,700
Andrew Novak $6,700 39.70% 4.85% 75.0 PM $6,700
Matt Wallace $6,600 41.09% 0.20% 75.0 AM $6,700
TIER 13 – Tier Salary: $6,600 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 76.6%
Tony Finau $6,600 35.50% 6.21% 72.0 AM $6,600
Billy Horschel $6,600 34.94% 5.22% 71.0 AM $6,600
Bud Cauley $6,500 44.28% 1.65% 74.0 PM $6,600
TIER 14 – Tier Salary: $6,500 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 80.7%
Denny McCarthy $6,500 42.96% 2.29% 74.0 AM $6,500
Pierceson Coody $6,500 42.03% 6.68% 73.0 AM $6,500
Jordan L. Smith $6,500 41.77% 2.91% 73.0 AM $6,500
TIER 15 – Tier Salary: $6,400 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 80.6%
Andrew Putnam $6,400 46.78% 3.45% 75.0 AM $6,400
Michael Kim $6,400 41.52% 2.38% 72.0 AM $6,400
Patrick Rodgers $6,400 37.60% 3.19% 70.0 AM $6,400
TIER 16 – Tier Salary: $6,400 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 72.3%
Michael Brennan $6,400 34.68% 3.09% 68.0 AM $6,400
Ryan Fox $6,300 40.41% 4.87% 70.0 AM $6,400
John Keefer $6,300 28.89% 1.03% 64.0 AM $6,400
TIER 17 – Tier Salary: $6,300 | 3 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 76.2%
Sami Valimaki $6,300 36.23% 2.59% 68.0 AM $6,300
Austin Smotherman $6,300 40.54% 3.28% 71.0 PM $6,300
Chandler Blanchet $6,200 37.16% 1.94% 68.0 AM $6,300
TIER 18 – Tier Salary: $6,200 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 72.0%
Lucas Glover $6,200 29.39% 1.65% 64.0 AM $6,200
William Mouw $6,200 28.76% 1.76% 63.0 AM $6,200
Tom Hoge $6,200 30.78% 3.13% 64.0 AM $6,200
Aldrich Potgieter $6,100 19.71% 1.55% 57.0 PM $6,200
TIER 19 – Tier Salary: $6,100 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 79.3%
Karl Vilips $6,100 22.64% 1.31% 59.0 AM $6,100
Steven Fisk $6,100 38.30% 1.61% 67.0 AM $6,100
Garrick Higgo $6,100 35.01% 1.23% 66.0 AM $6,100
David Lipsky $6,000 33.42% 1.67% 63.0 AM $6,100
TIER 20 – Tier Salary: $6,000 | 4 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 77.8%
Jhonattan Vegas $6,000 37.63% 1.49% 65.0 AM $6,000
Joe Highsmith $6,000 30.61% 1.32% 61.0 AM $6,000
Brian Campbell $6,000 26.66% 1.05% 59.0 AM $6,000
Adam Schenk $6,000 29.95% 1.31% 61.0 AM $6,000

Building Your GPP Lineups

For optimal player diversity, we recommend building 3-4 distinct GPP lineups. With no cut risk, you can be more aggressive with contrarian picks and low-ownership value plays than in typical cut events.

How to Construct Each Lineup

Select 2-3 anchors from the Premium Tier. Fill remaining spots with exactly one player from each of 4 distinct tiers. Total salary must be $49,000-$50,000.

Example Lineup

Starting with Scottie Scheffler ($13,500) and Cameron Young ($9,800) as anchors uses $23,300 of the $50,000 cap, leaving $26,700 for four tier selections. Tiers 2, 15, 19, and 20 combine for $26,700 in tier salaries, bringing the total to $50,000.

Anchor 1 Anchor 2 Tier 2 Tier 15 Tier 19 Tier 20
Scottie Scheffler $13,500 Cameron Young $9,800 Jacob Bridgeman $8,200 Andrew Putnam $6,400 Karl Vilips $6,100 Jhonattan Vegas $6,000
Chris Gotterup $8,100 Michael Kim $6,400 Steven Fisk $6,100 Joe Highsmith $6,000
Jason Day $8,000 Patrick Rodgers $6,400 Garrick Higgo $6,100 Brian Campbell $6,000
Sepp Straka $7,900 David Lipsky $6,000 Adam Schenk $6,000

For example: Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Jacob Bridgeman ($8,200), Andrew Putnam ($6,400), Karl Vilips ($6,100), and Jhonattan Vegas ($6,000) totals $50,000. Adjust within each tier to hit the $49,000-$50,000 target.

Cash Game Strategy: High-Floor Core Lineup

In a no-cut event, cash game strategy focuses purely on maximizing projected points and ownership overlap. Without cut risk, the floor is guaranteed for all players, so the optimization shifts to finding the highest-owned, highest-projected group that fits within salary constraints.

The core lineup was calculated by filtering to players with 75%+ model confidence, then optimizing across all 47 eligible players for the 6-player combination that maximizes total combined ownership within $49,000-$50,000.

Player Salary Own% Proj Pts 12X Pts/$ Wave Core
Scottie Scheffler $13,500 24.43% 103.0 0.56% PM
Cameron Young $9,800 20.01% 92.0 13.18% AM
Russell Henley $9,600 19.54% 94.0 16.51% PM
Tommy Fleetwood $10,100 19.41% 93.0 10.56% PM
Matt Fitzpatrick $10,000 19.34% 93.0 12.10% PM
Min Woo Lee $7,800 18.66% 83.0 32.07% AM
Jake Knapp $9,100 18.64% 88.0 16.20% PM
Xander Schauffele $10,500 17.71% 94.0 8.42% PM
Si Woo Kim $8,900 15.48% 90.0 22.25% PM
Ryan Gerard $7,400 15.08% 81.0 37.31% AM
Maverick McNealy $8,500 14.95% 88.0 27.14% PM
Chris Gotterup $8,100 14.78% 84.0 26.85% AM
Nicolai Hojgaard $7,500 13.85% 79.0 31.39% AM
Sahith Theegala $7,600 13.62% 79.0 27.52% AM
Jacob Bridgeman $8,200 13.46% 84.0 25.72% AM
Ludvig Aberg $9,400 13.35% 93.0 19.67% AM
Sepp Straka $7,900 13.10% 83.0 29.63% AM
Robert MacIntyre $8,700 12.44% 91.0 28.07% AM
Jordan Spieth $8,800 12.35% 86.0 19.22% AM
Akshay Bhatia $7,700 11.56% 82.0 31.62% PM
Collin Morikawa $9,300 11.49% 91.0 17.86% PM
Shane Lowry $8,400 10.73% 84.0 22.64% PM
Ryo Hisatsune $7,700 9.78% 79.0 25.86% AM
Viktor Hovland $8,600 9.22% 87.0 22.43% AM
Harris English $7,900 9.20% 84.0 31.70% AM
Sam Burns $9,000 8.47% 88.0 18.69% PM
J.J. Spaun $7,500 8.20% 83.0 39.28% AM
Corey Conners $7,000 8.16% 80.0 43.39% PM
Michael Thorbjornsen $7,300 8.06% 79.0 35.20% AM
Jason Day $8,000 8.01% 85.0 30.94% PM
Justin Thomas $8,300 8.00% 85.0 24.82% AM
Daniel Berger $7,300 7.82% 79.0 34.11% AM
Patrick Cantlay $9,200 7.37% 90.0 18.09% PM
Rickie Fowler $7,600 6.91% 84.0 36.33% AM
Sam Stevens $7,200 6.80% 81.0 39.77% AM
Harry Hall $7,400 5.77% 81.0 35.94% PM
J.T. Poston $7,200 5.47% 80.0 37.57% AM
Sudarshan Yellamaraju $7,200 5.13% 76.0 31.47% PM
Brian Harman $7,000 5.07% 81.0 45.46% AM
Matthew McCarty $6,800 4.95% 75.0 38.74% AM
Andrew Novak $6,700 4.85% 75.0 39.70% PM
Sungjae Im $6,700 4.02% 78.0 45.97% AM
Kurt Kitayama $7,100 3.64% 80.0 40.63% AM
Alex Noren $7,100 3.09% 85.0 48.30% AM
Ben Griffin $7,800 2.69% 84.0 33.98% AM
Nick Taylor $7,100 2.62% 79.0 38.74% AM
Keegan Bradley $6,900 2.55% 79.0 43.27% PM
Core Lineup: Cameron Young | Min Woo Lee | Jake Knapp | Ryan Gerard | Chris Gotterup | Nicolai Hojgaard | Total Salary: $49,700 | Combined Ownership: 101.02%

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