DFS Dashboard Analysis
April 2026 | TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
Full-Field Event | Cut Event (Top 65 & Ties) | Standard DK Scoring
Event Overview
The 2026 Valero Texas Open returns to TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course for its 17th consecutive year at the venue and 104th edition overall, making it the third-oldest event on the PGA Tour. The purse is $9.8 million, with the winner earning $1.764 million and 500 FedExCup points. Perhaps most critically, the winner – if not already exempt – earns a last-minute invitation to the Masters at Augusta National the following week. Defending champion Brian Harman returns after grinding out a gritty 9-under 279 victory last year in brutal wind conditions, closing with a 3-over 75 on Sunday to win by three strokes. This year’s 132-player field features 15 of the world’s top 50, headlined by world No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood and No. 10 Russell Henley, with Ludvig Aberg, Robert MacIntyre, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sepp Straka among the marquee names. Several players are making a final push for a Masters invitation, including Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Ryo Hisatsune. DFS Dashboard ran simulations using the two-stage bimodal mixture model to produce the projections and probability distributions analyzed in this article.
Cut Rules
The Valero Texas Open uses the standard PGA Tour cut format: the top 65 players and ties after 36 holes advance to the weekend. Players who miss the cut receive zero DraftKings points for Rounds 3 and 4, which makes cut probability one of the most important filters in DFS lineup construction. At TPC San Antonio, the historical cut line has typically fallen in a narrow range around even par. Three of the last five editions featured a cut line of either 1-under or 1-over, and only twice since 2015 has the cut come in under par (2019 and 2022). Weather and wind direction can push the cut line in either direction – last year’s windy conditions saw a relatively high cut line. The model applies a hard 50% cut probability floor before any player is considered for lineup building, which eliminated 75 players from the active pool, leaving 68 eligible players for this analysis.
The Course
TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course is a par-72 layout measuring 7,438 yards, designed by Greg Norman with player consultant Sergio Garcia. The course opened in 2010 and was carved through the Texas Hill Country, with narrow corridors framed by mature live oak trees. Norman built the course through six feet of blasted limestone, incorporating rugged, minimalist bunkering with edges that emulate the canopy of the native oaks. The course features only 100 feet of total elevation change from high to low point, with downhill holes playing into the prevailing wind and uphill holes playing downwind. Bermuda grasses were specially selected throughout – Champions Bermuda on greens, TifSport on fairways, and native Texas grasses in outer corridors.
Ball-striking is the name of the game at TPC San Antonio. The course rewards accuracy off the tee through its tree-lined corridors, but iron play into the green complexes is the primary separator. The greens are raised and run off into closely mown collection areas and deep bunkering, demanding precise distance control on approaches. In firm, fast conditions, the course becomes a test of short game creativity. Wind is a persistent factor – San Antonio experienced an uncharacteristically hot February and March, and the forecast calls for building winds through the week, similar to the 2025 conditions that produced Harman’s 9-under winning score. Course history is meaningful here: players like Jordan Spieth, Denny McCarthy, Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, and Charley Hoffman have consistently performed well, suggesting that familiarity with the course’s subtleties and Texas wind conditions provides a tangible edge.
Anchor Selection: Premium Tier ($8,300+)
Your anchor selections are the highest-leverage picks in DFS lineup construction, consuming the largest share of your salary cap. We recommend selecting 2-3 anchor players from this premium tier to form the backbone of each lineup. These players carry the highest ceiling projections but also the highest salary cost, so identifying the right 2-3 is critical to leaving enough cap space for value in the remaining spots.
The 10X, 11X, and 12X PTS/$ columns represent the probability that each player returns 10, 11, or 12 times their salary-implied fantasy point value. For example, a $10,000 player with a 12X probability of 5.75% has roughly a 1-in-17 chance of scoring 120+ DraftKings points. These multiplier probabilities capture upside beyond raw projected points and are essential for GPP lineup differentiation.
| Player | Salary | Proj Pts | Cut Prob | 10X Pts/$ | 11X Pts/$ | 12X Pts/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,500 | 90.0 | 77% | 26.38% | 12.95% | 5.75% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $10,100 | 89.0 | 75% | 29.96% | 15.31% | 7.05% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $9,900 | 87.0 | 75% | 30.80% | 17.02% | 8.00% |
| Russell Henley | $9,800 | 89.0 | 75% | 34.98% | 20.08% | 9.79% |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,600 | 86.0 | 75% | 33.54% | 18.93% | 9.14% |
| Jordan Spieth | $9,500 | 86.0 | 75% | 35.52% | 20.44% | 10.76% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,300 | 86.0 | 75% | 37.70% | 22.04% | 11.86% |
| Sepp Straka | $9,200 | 83.0 | 75% | 34.99% | 20.01% | 10.49% |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,000 | 83.0 | 75% | 38.39% | 24.21% | 13.35% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $8,900 | 83.0 | 75% | 40.42% | 25.67% | 14.35% |
| Rickie Fowler | $8,800 | 84.0 | 75% | 43.32% | 28.16% | 16.35% |
| Alex Noren | $8,700 | 79.0 | 75% | 37.04% | 22.64% | 12.22% |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,600 | 78.0 | 75% | 36.27% | 21.95% | 11.76% |
| Keith Mitchell | $8,500 | 79.0 | 75% | 40.64% | 25.81% | 15.26% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $8,300 | 79.0 | 75% | 44.36% | 28.69% | 17.61% |
High Floor, High Upside: Best Value Targets
After locking in your anchors, the remaining roster spots demand a careful balance between floor (making the cut and posting a reasonable score) and ceiling (the upside to return tournament-winning fantasy points). This is where the 12X PTS/$ column becomes your primary guide. Players in this salary range who carry high 12X probabilities offer asymmetric upside at a fraction of the anchor cost.
Low-ownership players in this tier carry built-in contrarian value. In large GPP fields, differentiation is the key to climbing leaderboards, and a low-owned player who hits 12X can vault a lineup past thousands of competitors who all rostered the same popular anchors. Consider Austin Smotherman at $7,000 with a 25.81% chance of hitting 12X – that is outsized upside relative to salary cost and ownership of just 6.77%.
| Player | Salary | Proj Pts | Cut % | Own% | 10X Pts/$ | 11X Pts/$ | 12X Pts/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Smotherman | $7,000 | 70.0 | 58% | 6.77% | 50.85% | 37.80% | 25.81% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $7,100 | 72.0 | 58% | 5.33% | 52.24% | 37.30% | 25.43% |
| Sami Valimaki | $6,600 | 66.0 | 58% | 1.91% | 50.95% | 37.45% | 25.36% |
| Steven Fisk | $6,700 | 67.0 | 58% | 0.68% | 50.18% | 36.73% | 24.77% |
| Eric Cole | $6,900 | 68.0 | 58% | 1.33% | 49.85% | 36.48% | 24.68% |
| Bronson Burgoon | $6,600 | 65.0 | 58% | 1.57% | 49.72% | 36.54% | 24.62% |
| Beau Hossler | $6,800 | 68.0 | 58% | 0.83% | 50.10% | 36.77% | 24.60% |
| Andrew Putnam | $6,800 | 67.0 | 58% | 1.65% | 49.19% | 35.86% | 24.33% |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $6,900 | 68.0 | 58% | 1.96% | 49.12% | 35.83% | 24.21% |
| Billy Horschel | $6,800 | 67.0 | 58% | 1.54% | 49.10% | 35.69% | 24.04% |
| Stephan Jaeger | $7,400 | 73.0 | 58% | 9.17% | 49.97% | 35.22% | 23.84% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $7,300 | 72.0 | 58% | 4.07% | 49.72% | 35.03% | 23.57% |
| Kris Ventura | $6,600 | 65.0 | 58% | 0.20% | 48.78% | 35.38% | 23.57% |
| Chad Ramey | $7,000 | 69.0 | 58% | 5.72% | 48.38% | 35.10% | 23.41% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $6,700 | 66.0 | 58% | 0.70% | 48.27% | 34.96% | 23.37% |
Tier Breakdown: Probability-Based Player Groupings
The tier system groups players by salary into bands where the combined probability of at least one player delivering a 12X return reaches approximately 70%. This is calculated using the formula: P(at least one) = 1 – Product(1 – p_i) for all players i in the tier. Each tier therefore gives you roughly a 70%+ chance that at least one player within it will hit a tournament-winning return, provided you roster one from the group.
Tier Salary represents the maximum individual salary within each tier and is used for quick salary fitting when constructing lineups. When building a lineup with two anchors and four tier selections, you can add the two anchor salaries plus four tier salaries to estimate whether the combination fits within the $49,000-$50,000 target range.
| Player | Salary | 12X Pts/$ | Cut % | Own% | Proj Pts | Wave | Tier Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIER 1 – Tier Salary: $8,700 | 8 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 73.0% | |||||||
| Alex Noren | $8,700 | 12.22% | 75% | 10.50% | 79.0 | AM | $8,700 |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,600 | 11.76% | 75% | 13.50% | 78.0 | PM | $8,700 |
| Keith Mitchell | $8,500 | 15.26% | 75% | 13.07% | 79.0 | PM | $8,700 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $8,300 | 17.61% | 75% | 15.52% | 79.0 | AM | $8,700 |
| Denny McCarthy | $8,200 | 16.62% | 75% | 14.49% | 78.0 | PM | $8,700 |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $8,100 | 14.06% | 58% | 13.77% | 75.0 | AM | $8,700 |
| John Keefer | $8,000 | 14.91% | 58% | 13.31% | 74.0 | PM | $8,700 |
| Nick Taylor | $8,000 | 18.23% | 75% | 10.75% | 76.0 | PM | $8,700 |
| TIER 2 – Tier Salary: $7,900 | 7 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 75.4% | |||||||
| Brian Harman | $7,900 | 15.96% | 58% | 12.20% | 74.0 | PM | $7,900 |
| Marco Penge | $7,800 | 15.32% | 58% | 10.82% | 72.0 | AM | $7,900 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,800 | 18.96% | 75% | 8.54% | 75.0 | AM | $7,900 |
| Jordan L. Smith | $7,700 | 18.16% | 58% | 11.22% | 74.0 | PM | $7,900 |
| Will Zalatoris | $7,600 | 17.67% | 58% | 9.93% | 72.0 | AM | $7,900 |
| Alex Smalley | $7,600 | 19.89% | 58% | 9.93% | 74.0 | PM | $7,900 |
| Davis Thompson | $7,500 | 20.96% | 58% | 5.23% | 73.0 | AM | $7,900 |
| TIER 3 – Tier Salary: $7,500 | 6 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 74.6% | |||||||
| Rico Hoey | $7,500 | 19.42% | 58% | 8.85% | 71.0 | AM | $7,500 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $7,500 | 17.52% | 58% | 9.71% | 70.0 | AM | $7,500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $7,400 | 23.84% | 58% | 9.17% | 73.0 | PM | $7,500 |
| Tony Finau | $7,400 | 22.25% | 58% | 10.38% | 72.0 | AM | $7,500 |
| Max McGreevy | $7,400 | 18.08% | 58% | 9.07% | 70.0 | AM | $7,500 |
| J.T. Poston | $7,400 | 21.08% | 58% | 9.52% | 72.0 | AM | $7,500 |
| TIER 4 – Tier Salary: $7,400 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 70.3% | |||||||
| Matthew McCarty | $7,400 | 19.51% | 58% | 9.39% | 71.0 | PM | $7,400 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $7,300 | 23.57% | 58% | 4.07% | 72.0 | AM | $7,400 |
| Andrew Novak | $7,300 | 19.69% | 58% | 8.02% | 70.0 | AM | $7,400 |
| Matt Wallace | $7,300 | 22.65% | 58% | 4.94% | 72.0 | PM | $7,400 |
| Mac Meissner | $7,300 | 22.19% | 58% | 10.78% | 71.0 | AM | $7,400 |
| TIER 5 – Tier Salary: $7,200 | 6 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 76.2% | |||||||
| Bud Cauley | $7,200 | 20.89% | 58% | 4.44% | 70.0 | AM | $7,200 |
| Chris Kirk | $7,200 | 22.17% | 58% | 4.00% | 71.0 | PM | $7,200 |
| Tom Kim | $7,200 | 21.46% | 58% | 6.12% | 70.0 | PM | $7,200 |
| John Parry | $7,200 | 18.27% | 58% | 6.71% | 68.0 | PM | $7,200 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $7,100 | 22.31% | 58% | 4.88% | 70.0 | PM | $7,200 |
| Hao-Tong Li | $7,100 | 22.54% | 58% | 7.97% | 70.0 | PM | $7,200 |
| TIER 6 – Tier Salary: $7,100 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 72.4% | |||||||
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | $7,100 | 19.93% | 58% | 5.61% | 68.0 | AM | $7,100 |
| Zecheng Dou | $7,100 | 18.73% | 58% | 5.02% | 67.0 | PM | $7,100 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $7,100 | 25.43% | 58% | 5.33% | 72.0 | PM | $7,100 |
| Max Homa | $7,000 | 23.20% | 58% | 5.09% | 68.0 | AM | $7,100 |
| Austin Smotherman | $7,000 | 25.81% | 58% | 6.77% | 70.0 | AM | $7,100 |
| TIER 7 – Tier Salary: $7,000 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 72.1% | |||||||
| Doug Ghim | $7,000 | 21.07% | 58% | 4.06% | 67.0 | AM | $7,000 |
| Chad Ramey | $7,000 | 23.41% | 58% | 5.72% | 69.0 | PM | $7,000 |
| William Mouw | $7,000 | 22.40% | 58% | 5.06% | 68.0 | AM | $7,000 |
| Taylor Moore | $6,900 | 23.23% | 58% | 5.48% | 67.0 | AM | $7,000 |
| Lee Hodges | $6,900 | 22.46% | 58% | 4.96% | 67.0 | PM | $7,000 |
| TIER 8 – Tier Salary: $6,900 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 71.6% | |||||||
| Michael Kim | $6,900 | 20.55% | 58% | 4.54% | 66.0 | AM | $6,900 |
| Seamus Power | $6,900 | 21.51% | 58% | 4.84% | 66.0 | AM | $6,900 |
| Eric Cole | $6,900 | 24.68% | 58% | 1.33% | 68.0 | PM | $6,900 |
| Kevin Roy | $6,900 | 20.14% | 58% | 4.76% | 65.0 | PM | $6,900 |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $6,900 | 24.21% | 58% | 1.96% | 68.0 | AM | $6,900 |
| TIER 9 – Tier Salary: $6,800 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 74.6% | |||||||
| Billy Horschel | $6,800 | 24.04% | 58% | 1.54% | 67.0 | PM | $6,800 |
| Beau Hossler | $6,800 | 24.60% | 58% | 0.83% | 68.0 | PM | $6,800 |
| Andrew Putnam | $6,800 | 24.33% | 58% | 1.65% | 67.0 | PM | $6,800 |
| Matt Kuchar | $6,800 | 22.06% | 58% | 0.30% | 66.0 | AM | $6,800 |
| Steven Fisk | $6,700 | 24.77% | 58% | 0.68% | 67.0 | PM | $6,800 |
| TIER 10 – Tier Salary: $6,700 | 5 Players | Combined 12X Probability: 74.7% | |||||||
| Vince Whaley | $6,700 | 23.14% | 58% | 0.20% | 65.0 | AM | $6,700 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $6,700 | 23.37% | 58% | 0.70% | 66.0 | AM | $6,700 |
| Sami Valimaki | $6,600 | 25.36% | 58% | 1.91% | 66.0 | AM | $6,700 |
| Kris Ventura | $6,600 | 23.57% | 58% | 0.20% | 65.0 | AM | $6,700 |
| Bronson Burgoon | $6,600 | 24.62% | 58% | 1.57% | 65.0 | AM | $6,700 |
Building Your GPP Lineups
For optimal player diversity and correlation management, we recommend building 3-4 distinct GPP lineups. Each lineup should vary the anchor pair and tier assignments to maximize your exposure to different tournament outcomes while avoiding over-concentration on any single player or salary band.
How to Construct Each Lineup
Select 2-3 anchors from the Premium Tier (Section 2). Fill the remaining roster spots with exactly one player from each of 4 distinct tiers. Each tier should be used only once per lineup to ensure salary diversity and reduce correlation between picks. The total salary must fall between $49,000 and $50,000. Use the Tier Salary column to estimate fit before drilling into individual player selections.
Example Lineup
Starting with Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500) and Robert MacIntyre ($9,900) as anchors uses $20,400 of the $50,000 cap, leaving $29,600 for four tier selections. Tiers 1, 4, 9, and 10 combine for $29,600 in tier salaries, bringing the total to $50,000.
| Anchor 1 | Anchor 2 | Tier 1 | Tier 4 | Tier 9 | Tier 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood $10,500 | Robert MacIntyre $9,900 | Alex Noren $8,700 | Matthew McCarty $7,400 | Billy Horschel $6,800 | Vince Whaley $6,700 |
| J.J. Spaun $8,600 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,300 | Beau Hossler $6,800 | Emiliano Grillo $6,700 | ||
| Keith Mitchell $8,500 | Andrew Novak $7,300 | Andrew Putnam $6,800 | Sami Valimaki $6,600 | ||
| Ryo Hisatsune $8,300 | Matt Wallace $7,300 | Matt Kuchar $6,800 | Kris Ventura $6,600 | ||
| Denny McCarthy $8,200 | Mac Meissner $7,300 | Steven Fisk $6,700 | Bronson Burgoon $6,600 | ||
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju $8,100 | |||||
| John Keefer $8,000 | |||||
| Nick Taylor $8,000 |
For example, selecting one player from each tier column: Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Alex Noren ($8,700), Matthew McCarty ($7,400), Billy Horschel ($6,800), and Vince Whaley ($6,700) totals $50,000. Adjust within each tier to hit the $49,000-$50,000 target.
Cash Game Strategy: High-Floor Core Lineup
Cash game strategy inverts the GPP approach. Instead of seeking differentiation and upside, cash games reward consistency and floor. The optimal cash lineup maximizes the probability that all six players make the cut and post respectable scores. High ownership is a feature in cash, not a liability – if everyone rosters the same player and that player performs, you all advance together.
The core lineup below was calculated by filtering to only players with 75% cut probability (the highest confidence tier in our model), then running a brute-force optimization across all possible 6-player combinations to find the group that maximizes total combined ownership within the $49,000-$50,000 salary constraint.
| Player | Salary | Own% | Cut % | Proj Pts | 12X Pts/$ | Wave | Core |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Si Woo Kim | $9,600 | 21.03% | 75% | 86.0 | 9.14% | AM | |
| Russell Henley | $9,800 | 20.70% | 75% | 89.0 | 9.79% | PM | |
| Ludvig Aberg | $10,100 | 20.17% | 75% | 89.0 | 7.05% | PM | |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,500 | 19.78% | 77% | 90.0 | 5.75% | AM | |
| Jordan Spieth | $9,500 | 19.68% | 75% | 86.0 | 10.76% | PM | |
| Robert MacIntyre | $9,900 | 18.77% | 75% | 87.0 | 8.00% | PM | |
| Sepp Straka | $9,200 | 15.90% | 75% | 83.0 | 10.49% | PM | ✓ |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $8,300 | 15.52% | 75% | 79.0 | 17.61% | AM | ✓ |
| Denny McCarthy | $8,200 | 14.49% | 75% | 78.0 | 16.62% | PM | ✓ |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,000 | 14.29% | 75% | 83.0 | 13.35% | AM | |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $8,900 | 13.65% | 75% | 83.0 | 14.35% | AM | |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,600 | 13.50% | 75% | 78.0 | 11.76% | PM | |
| Keith Mitchell | $8,500 | 13.07% | 75% | 79.0 | 15.26% | PM | ✓ |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,300 | 12.82% | 75% | 86.0 | 11.86% | AM | |
| Rickie Fowler | $8,800 | 12.21% | 75% | 84.0 | 16.35% | AM | |
| Nick Taylor | $8,000 | 10.75% | 75% | 76.0 | 18.23% | PM | ✓ |
| Alex Noren | $8,700 | 10.50% | 75% | 79.0 | 12.22% | AM | |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,800 | 8.54% | 75% | 75.0 | 18.96% | AM | ✓ |
