DFS Dashboard Analysis
March 2026 | Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), Palm Harbor, FL
Full-Field Event | Cut Event (Top 65 & Ties) | Standard DK Scoring
Event Overview
The PGA Tour heads to Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida for the 2026 Valspar Championship. A regular-season staple on the Florida swing, this full-field cut event advances the top 65 and ties through 36 holes. DFS Dashboard ran simulations per player using our two-stage bimodal mixture model to identify the edges worth targeting across all salary tiers.
The Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
The Copperhead Course is a par-71 layout that demands consistent ball-striking over power. Unlike the stadium-course target golf of TPC Sawgrass the week prior, the Copperhead rewards players who work the ball both directions, manage tee-shot placement through tight corridors, and execute mid-to-long irons into undulating greens. The course has historically produced low cut lines relative to field quality, meaning cut probability becomes a critical filter when constructing cash lineups.
Bermuda rough and tiered greens punish mis-hits severely. Players with strong Strokes Gained: Approach and iron precision metrics have a measurable structural edge here. Course history is meaningful at Copperhead, as repeat contenders appear year over year at this venue.
Cut Structure and Probability Tiers
With a full field and a top-65-and-ties cut structure, cut probability is the most important filter in cash lineup construction. Our simulations produced the following cut probability tiers across the salary range:
Players priced at $9,000 and above generally carry 75.0% cut probability or higher. The $8,000 to $8,900 range is mixed, with most holding 75.0% but some dropping to 57.6%. Players from $7,000 to $7,900 split between 57.6% and 75.0% depending on simulation performance. Below $7,000, cut probabilities drop to 57.6%, 46.7%, or as low as 40.8% in the deepest value tier. One player, Max Greyserman, is listed as Out with a 0.0% cut probability and should not be rostered.
In cash formats, the 75.0% cut probability threshold should be treated as a hard floor. In GPP formats, players at 57.6% carrying 45%+ 10X probabilities become viable as differentiating plays, provided they are surrounded by safer anchors.
The Elite Tier: $9,500 to $10,900
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Win% | Top 10% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Xander Schauffele | $10,900 | 8:24 AM | 92.0 | 8.70% | 41.32% | 23.34% | 4.32% | 21.28% |
| Viktor Hovland | $10,400 | 8:13 AM | 86.0 | 5.00% | 30.30% | 20.76% | 3.87% | 17.07% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $10,000 | 1:03 PM | 86.0 | 5.00% | 30.30% | 26.34% | 6.13% | 17.07% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $9,800 | 1:03 PM | 89.0 | 6.25% | 34.72% | 34.83% | 9.95% | 18.94% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $9,600 | 1:14 PM | 85.0 | 4.35% | 28.17% | 31.29% | 7.94% | 16.29% |
| Justin Thomas | $9,500 | 1:03 PM | 82.0 | 4.35% | 26.32% | 27.95% | 7.17% | 9.35% |
Xander Schauffele ($10,900 | 21.28% Own) is the field’s consensus top play at 8.70% win probability and 92.0 projected points, the highest on the slate. At 21.28% ownership he will be well represented in cash lineups. His 41.32% top-10 rate and 75.0% cut probability make him the safest anchor on the board, even though his 10X ceiling (23.34%) reflects the salary cost of getting there.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,800 | PM | 18.94% Own) is the most compelling value in the elite tier. His 6.25% win probability ranks third in the field, yet he checks in $1,100 below Schauffele. His 34.83% 10X and 9.95% 12X lead the elite tier in ceiling rates. The precision iron game Fitzpatrick brings is purpose-built for the Copperhead’s approach demands. His 1:03 PM tee time adds mild conditions variance, but his upside justifies the exposure in both formats.
Justin Thomas ($9,500 | PM | 9.35% Own) stands out as the most underowned player in the elite tier at just 9.35% ownership relative to his 4.35% win probability. Among players in this salary band, that ownership gap is the widest on the slate. His PM tee time at 1:03 introduces variance, but at under 10% ownership he offers significant tournament leverage.
Akshay Bhatia ($10,000 | PM | 17.07% Own) arrives as last week’s Arnold Palmer champion with peak momentum. His 5.00% win probability and 26.34% 10X rate are strong, though the 1:03 PM tee time is a mild headwind in a field with several AM alternatives at similar pricing. Best used in GPP formats where his recent win creates narrative-driven tournament ownership upside.
Viktor Hovland ($10,400 | AM | 17.07% Own) and Xander Schauffele share the same ownership projection at 17.07% in the sim, but Hovland’s 20.76% 10X rate at $10,400 is significantly weaker than Schauffele’s value at $10,900. Hovland is an acceptable AM cash option but represents a salary-inefficient choice compared to lower-priced alternatives with comparable or better ceiling profiles.
The Upper-Mid Tier: $8,700 to $9,400
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Win% | Top 10% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $9,400 | 8:24 AM | 85.0 | 4.44% | 28.57% | 34.08% | 9.91% | 16.57% |
| Jordan Spieth | $9,300 | 1:14 PM | 82.0 | 3.57% | 24.69% | 30.69% | 8.27% | 14.67% |
| Ben Griffin | $9,200 | 1:25 PM | 82.0 | 3.33% | 24.69% | 33.84% | 9.90% | 14.92% |
| Brooks Koepka | $9,100 | 8:13 AM | 81.0 | 3.70% | 24.69% | 32.85% | 9.30% | 14.55% |
| Corey Conners | $9,000 | 8:13 AM | 80.0 | 2.94% | 22.22% | 33.98% | 10.61% | 10.05% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $8,900 | 12:52 PM | 79.0 | 2.70% | 20.83% | 32.20% | 9.55% | 9.30% |
| Sahith Theegala | $8,800 | 1:25 PM | 79.0 | 2.70% | 21.05% | 34.89% | 11.10% | 9.51% |
J.J. Spaun ($8,700 | 10.43% Own) is the standout play in this tier. His 40.48% 10X and 14.04% 12X lead all players between $8,700 and $9,400 in ceiling rates. His 75.0% cut probability makes him a viable cash anchor. At just over 10% ownership, Spaun’s ceiling upside combined with moderate public backing makes him the most efficiently priced player in this range.
Nick Taylor ($8,400 | AM | 18.92% Own) leads the tier in 10X probability at 44.35% and delivers 12X at 17.56%, both highest in the $8,000 to $8,900 range. His 8:08 AM tee time places him among the earliest groups on the course. At 18.92% ownership he is the most-owned player in this salary band, but the simulation numbers justify the public backing. He is a core cash option.
Davis Thompson ($8,200 | 8.76% Own) is one of the more overlooked plays on the slate. His 41.42% 10X and 15.51% 12X are comparable to Nick Taylor, yet he carries less than half the ownership at 8.76%. The combination of near-equivalent ceiling rates to higher-owned peers at meaningfully lower ownership makes Thompson one of the best GPP differentiators in the mid-range.
Corey Conners ($9,000 | 10.05% Own) earns attention for his 12X rate: 10.61% leads the upper-mid tier. His 33.98% 10X and 10.05% ownership give him an attractive ceiling-to-exposure ratio. Conners is a precision ball-striker who fits the Copperhead blueprint. Best used in GPP formats with upside-first construction.
Keegan Bradley ($8,500 | 16.97% Own) carries 36.58% 10X and 12.85% 12X. At $8,500 he is efficiently priced for both cash and tournament formats, though his 16.97% ownership means leverage hunters may prefer Thompson or Spaun at similar or lower price points with comparable ceiling profiles.
The Mid-Range Tier: $7,500 to $8,100
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Cut% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,700 | 8:35 AM | 81.0 | 75.0% | 40.48% | 14.04% | 10.43% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $8,600 | 1:20 PM | 79.0 | 75.0% | 37.86% | 12.55% | 17.96% |
| Keegan Bradley | $8,500 | 8:24 AM | 77.0 | 75.0% | 36.58% | 12.85% | 16.97% |
| Nick Taylor | $8,400 | 8:08 AM | 80.0 | 75.0% | 44.35% | 17.56% | 18.92% |
| Taylor Pendrith | $8,300 | 1:20 PM | 76.0 | 75.0% | 38.54% | 14.02% | 16.52% |
| Davis Thompson | $8,200 | 8:30 AM | 77.0 | 75.0% | 41.42% | 15.51% | 8.76% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $8,100 | 12:36 PM | 74.0 | 57.6% | 37.24% | 12.75% | 7.26% |
This tier contains some of the most efficient points-per-dollar values on the slate, with multiple players projecting above 9.5 points per dollar. Cut probability diverges here, making tier selection critical in cash formats.
Austin Smotherman ($7,400 | 11.90% Own) is the single most efficient salary play on the entire slate. His 10.27 projected points per dollar leads all players, and his 54.81% 10X and 28.18% 12X deliver elite ceiling at a $7,400 price point with a 75.0% cut probability. At 11.90% ownership he is moderately backed but nowhere near as heavily owned as his simulation ranking suggests he should be. Smotherman is a must-consider for both cash and GPP formats.
Nick Taylor ($8,400 | AM | 18.92% Own) also qualifies here for budget-building purposes, as his 9.52 points per dollar and 75.0% cut probability make him a legitimate cash core piece at his price.
J.J. Spaun ($8,700 | AM | 10.43% Own) and Davis Thompson ($8,200 | AM | 8.76% Own) carry the top ceiling rates in the $8,000 to $8,700 band, as discussed above. Both carry 75.0% cut probability with AM tee times.
Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,100 | PM | 7.26% Own) drops to 57.6% cut probability, the first player in the price range to fall below the 75.0% threshold. His 37.24% 10X and 7.26% ownership make him a GPP-only option. Players building cash lineups should look elsewhere at this salary level.
Value Tier: $6,900 to $7,900
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Cut% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Austin Smotherman | $7,400 | 8:02 AM | 76.0 | 75.0% | 54.81% | 28.18% | 11.90% |
| Aaron Rai | $7,900 | 8:08 AM | 76.0 | 75.0% | 45.66% | 19.45% | 14.81% |
| Alex Smalley | $7,800 | 7:35 AM | 75.0 | 75.0% | 45.05% | 19.11% | 14.36% |
| Matthew McCarty | $7,800 | 8:30 AM | 75.0 | 75.0% | 45.61% | 19.24% | 14.36% |
| Ricky Castillo | $7,900 | 8:35 AM | 74.0 | 57.6% | 41.10% | 16.34% | 13.72% |
| Rico Hoey | $7,000 | 1:42 PM | 70.0 | 57.6% | 51.65% | 26.29% | 11.73% |
Aaron Rai ($7,900 | AM | 14.81% Own) is the top AM value play in this salary range. His 75.0% cut probability, 9.62 points per dollar, and 45.66% 10X rate make him a reliable cash-building piece. The 8:08 AM tee time is ideal. His ownership at 14.81% is moderate, making him accessible in GPPs without creating structural liability.
Alex Smalley ($7,800 | AM | 14.36% Own) and Matthew McCarty ($7,800 | AM | 14.36% Own) are essentially identical in the simulation at this price point. Both post 75.0% cut probability, both hit 9.62 points per dollar, and both carry nearly identical 10X rates (45.05% and 45.61% respectively). Smalley’s 7:35 AM start gives him the earliest wave advantage of the pair. In large GPP fields, splitting exposure between the two is reasonable.
Ricky Castillo ($7,900 | AM | 13.72% Own) drops to 57.6% cut probability, which caps his cash utility. His 41.10% 10X at 13.72% ownership is adequate for GPP use, particularly given his AM tee time at 8:35. He is best framed as a tournament play, not a cash anchor.
Rico Hoey ($7,000 | PM | 11.73% Own) is the most notable deep-value outlier. His 51.65% 10X and 26.29% 12X lead all players below $7,200 in ceiling rates, and his 10.00 points per dollar is one of the highest on the slate. His 1:42 PM tee time and 57.6% cut probability mean he is a GPP-only play, but at $7,000 with elite ceiling metrics and moderate ownership, he represents a high-leverage tournament option.
GPP Leverage Plays:
| Player | Salary | Tee Time | Proj Pts | Cut% | 10X% | 12X% | Own% |
| Max McGreevy | $7,500 | 7:35 AM | 73.0 | 57.6% | 47.41% | 21.63% | 10.25% |
| Tom Kim | $7,100 | 9:08 AM | 69.0 | 57.6% | 47.29% | 21.15% | 11.18% |
| Sungjae Im | $7,100 | 8:46 AM | 68.0 | 57.6% | 45.84% | 20.40% | 4.09% |
| Steven Fisk | $6,600 | 8:08 AM | 65.0 | 57.6% | 48.68% | 23.59% | 0.58% |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $6,600 | 7:51 AM | 65.0 | 57.6% | 49.37% | 24.20% | 0.63% |
| Lee Hodges | $6,900 | 8:57 AM | 68.0 | 57.6% | 48.51% | 23.42% | 0.71% |
The deepest GPP value on this slate lives below 2% ownership. Multiple players in the $6,600 to $7,500 range carry 45%+ 10X probabilities with sub-1% ownership, creating near-unique differentiation in large-field tournaments.
Seonghyeon Kim ($6,600 | AM | 0.63% Own) posts a 49.37% 10X and 24.20% 12X at 57.6% cut probability. His 7:51 AM tee time and near-zero ownership make him one of the purest differentiators on the slate. He leads all sub-$6,700 players in 12X probability.
Steven Fisk ($6,600 | AM | 0.58% Own) delivers a 48.68% 10X and 23.59% 12X with a 57.6% cut probability and an 8:08 AM tee time. At 0.58% ownership in large fields, he is essentially unique. His points-per-dollar of 9.85 is among the highest on the slate at any salary level.
Lee Hodges ($6,900 | 0.71% Own) bumps up to $6,900 but maintains sub-1% ownership. His 48.51% 10X and 23.42% 12X are strong for the price. He offers marginally better salary efficiency than the sub-$6,700 tier while remaining nearly unrostered.
Max McGreevy ($7,500 | AM | 10.25% Own) is the one higher-owned player in this section worth noting. His 47.41% 10X and 21.63% 12X at 57.6% cut probability combine with a 7:35 AM start and 9.73 points per dollar. At 10.25% ownership he is no longer low-owned, but his simulation metrics at this salary level are strong enough to warrant inclusion in aggressive GPP builds.
Conditions Variance Considerations
Several notable names carry conditions variance risk based on their later tee times and should be assessed accordingly when constructing lineups.
Akshay Bhatia (1:03 PM), Matt Fitzpatrick (1:03 PM), Justin Thomas (1:03 PM), Jacob Bridgeman (1:14 PM), Jordan Spieth (1:14 PM), Ben Griffin (1:25 PM), and Sahith Theegala (1:25 PM) are all teed off later in the day in the $8,800 to $10,000 range. Of this group, Fitzpatrick and Thomas offer the most compelling ownership-to-ceiling ratios. Building lineups with two or more of these later-draw players in this range introduces correlated conditions variance and should be done intentionally in GPP formats where that exposure creates a structural edge if conditions cooperate.
Rico Hoey (1:42 PM) at $7,000 is the best PM value option below $8,000 due to his ceiling metrics, but his cut probability of 57.6% means he functions as a GPP-only asset. Do not include him in cash lineups.
Building Your Lineups: Practical Takeaways
Cash Games and 50/50s: Anchor with Schauffele ($10,900) or Fitzpatrick ($9,800) as the primary foundation. Build the core from the $8,200 to $8,700 range: J.J. Spaun, Davis Thompson, Nick Taylor, and Keegan Bradley. Fill value slots with Austin Smotherman ($7,400), Aaron Rai ($7,900), Alex Smalley ($7,800), or Matthew McCarty ($7,800), all carrying 75.0% cut probability. Prioritize players with at least 75.0% cut probability before rostering anyone below that threshold.
GPP Tournaments: Lead with Davis Thompson ($8,200) as the core mid-range differentiator given his ownership gap relative to his ceiling. Stack with sub-1% leverage plays such as Seonghyeon Kim ($6,600), Steven Fisk ($6,600), or Lee Hodges ($6,900) to create near-unique lineup construction. Target Justin Thomas ($9,500 | 9.35%) or Fitzpatrick for upside at underowned salary levels. Rico Hoey ($7,000) is a high-ceiling late-draw pivot for GPPs willing to accept 57.6% cut risk.
The key principle for Innisbrook’s Copperhead: approach precision wins. The course rewards players who find fairways and execute mid-iron approaches into undulating greens. Cut probability should be treated as the primary cash filter before any other consideration.
DFS Dashboard | 2026 Valspar Championship Analysis
